TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Grela vs Petr David 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12106111513119––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:45 and never touched: 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Petr David below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 87 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Petr David at 57.4%
87 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 36–67 Petr David Artur Grela has won 36 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:4557.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 2.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
David
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
36-67 in 103
David
Wrong
gap of 31 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1959 vs David 1946
Grela
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 80% vs David 40%
Grela
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 60% vs David 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +2 · David +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans David) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- David form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 2.10 / David 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (David)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13216082
Grela2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 106 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back32% 43 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 50
David1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 239 of 358
Up 2–0, closes it96% 122 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it83% 180 of 218
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela4wins
AwayDavid6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDavid leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela50%3 of 6
AwayDavid75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela6David4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S2Grela5David5n = 10split evenly
S3Grela4David6n = 10David took 6 of 10
S4Grela4David5n = 9David took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaDavidG − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.840.7−3.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaDavidBasisWin rate · lifetime630 / 1225 vs 652 / 98651.4%66.1%630 / 1225 vs 652 / 986Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DavidGrela 2.10/David 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 04:55A. Grela4412615113P. David4310111391
LSep 24 · 12:55A. Grela341239101P. David44101111123
LSep 24 · 06:05A. Grela4391111572P. David45115711113
LSep 17 · 13:45A. Grela4112137542P. David5410111111113
LSep 17 · 08:30A. Grela194780P. David331111113
LAug 27 · 10:00A. Grela31851171P. David4011117113
WAug 27 · 05:40A. Grela4313127113P. David4011101181
WAug 5 · 10:00A. Grela4071111113P. David32118671
LAug 5 · 05:40A. Grela31124781P. David43101111113
WAug 1 · 09:00A. Grela4211119113P. David33941191
A. Grela10
WSep 30 · 06:30K. Wloczko2.501151071A. Grela1.5061112113WSep 30 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.731383131A. Grela2.00111111153WSep 30 · 03:45A. Grela1.73111211113M. Jadczyk2.00814981WSep 24 · 13:45A. Daniel2.38251111122A. Grela1.53111177143LSep 24 · 12:55P. David1.61101111123A. Grela2.201239101WSep 24 · 12:05A. Grela1.4411118113K. Kolodziej2.63991151WSep 24 · 10:25A. Grela1.611111113J. Zandecki2.209650WSep 24 · 09:40S. Kolasa2.00781381A. Grela1.73111111113WSep 24 · 08:30S. Kolasa2.0031111762A. Grela1.73117811113LSep 24 · 07:20A. Grela1.679990J. Zandecki2.101111113
P. David10
LSep 30 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.20111511113P. David1.61517961WSep 30 · 03:25K. Wloczko3.40911991P. David1.3011811113WSep 29 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.0077100P. David1.731111123LSep 29 · 13:20P. David1.6710990J. Zandecki2.101211113LSep 29 · 12:05J. Kosowski2.10971111113P. David1.6711119892LSep 29 · 10:50P. Chodorski2.1011711113P. David1.67911871WSep 29 · 09:20G. Felkel2.25712931P. David1.57111011113WSep 29 · 08:05P. David1.5313711113J. Zandecki2.381111891WSep 29 · 06:30P. Chodorski2.109101171P. David1.6711126113WSep 24 · 12:55P. David1.61101111123A. Grela2.201239101
Upcoming Matches
A. Grela
P. David
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.