TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Petr David vs Jakub Kuzmicz 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12109111113811––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:45 and never touched: 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr David above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 85 set 4, 8-11 · our read held Petr David at 71.6%
85 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 3–3 Jakub Kuzmicz Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4571.6%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 1.8pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
David
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1938 vs Kuzmicz 1787
David
Wrong
both rated, 151 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 40% vs Kuzmicz 60%
Kuzmicz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 40% vs Kuzmicz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
David +1 · Kuzmicz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% · Strong (leans David) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 1.363 / Kuzmicz 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (David)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13216193
David1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 239 of 358
Up 2–0, closes it96% 122 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it83% 180 of 218
Kuzmicz3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 124 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back32% 38 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDavid3wins
AwayKuzmicz3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavid75%3 of 4
AwayKuzmiczn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David4Kuzmicz2n = 6David took 4 of 6
S2David1Kuzmicz5n = 6Kuzmicz took 5 of 6
S3David3Kuzmicz3n = 6split evenly
S4David1Kuzmicz3n = 4Kuzmicz took 3 of 4
S5David2Kuzmicz1n = 3David took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricDavidKuzmiczD − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match40.839.5+1.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime654 / 990 vs 729 / 126766.1%57.5%654 / 990 vs 729 / 1267Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.040.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DavidDavid 1.36/Kuzmicz 3.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.6%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kuzmicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 25 · 12:05P. David521111910113J. Kuzmicz4469111262
LSep 25 · 04:55P. David47111011962J. Kuzmicz46412811113
WSep 24 · 07:45P. David50119118113J. Kuzmicz4291171142
LSep 16 · 14:10P. David2610880J. Kuzmicz341211113
LSep 16 · 07:20P. David2612770J. Kuzmicz361411113
WApr 5 · 15:35P. David4411715113J. Kuzmicz358111331
P. David10
WSep 30 · 11:40A. Grela2.50871171P. David1.5011117113WSep 30 · 09:40P. David1.5781111113M. Jadczyk2.25116991LSep 30 · 08:30A. Wiecek2.10811127113P. David1.67119101172WSep 30 · 07:20P. David1.538111410113M. Miastowski2.38114121272LSep 30 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.20111511113P. David1.61517961LSep 30 · 04:55A. Grela2.1012615113P. David1.6710111391WSep 30 · 03:25K. Wloczko3.40911991P. David1.3011811113WSep 29 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.0077100P. David1.731111123LSep 29 · 13:20P. David1.6710990J. Zandecki2.101211113LSep 29 · 12:05J. Kosowski2.10971111113P. David1.6711119892
J. Kuzmicz10
LSep 30 · 09:20A. Wiecek1.531111113J. Kuzmicz2.387980WSep 30 · 08:05L. Jarocki2.25861171J. Kuzmicz1.5511119113WSep 30 · 07:15K. Wisniewski3.00116671J. Kuzmicz1.3261111113WSep 30 · 05:15A. Spychala3.00711591J. Kuzmicz1.3511511113LSep 30 · 04:25M. Olbrycht2.401111123J. Kuzmicz1.5097100WSep 30 · 03:00G. Poliniewicz2.606101141J. Kuzmicz1.4411125113LSep 29 · 14:35J. Kuzmicz2.10541171K. Kolodziej1.6511116113LSep 29 · 13:00J. Kuzmicz1.90117891M. Sklensky1.8091111113LSep 29 · 11:45J. Kuzmicz1.4099111172A. Spychala2.75111189113LSep 29 · 10:05J. Kuzmicz2.005970M. Miastowski1.731111113
Upcoming Matches
P. David
J. Kuzmicz
Sep 30 · 12:05J. Kuzmicz2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—Sep 30 · 13:20J. Kuzmicz2.00M. Miastowski1.73—Sep 30 · 14:35J. Kuzmicz2.50A. Grela1.50—Oct 1 · 03:00J. Kuzmicz—L. Jarocki——Oct 1 · 04:30J. Kuzmicz2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—Oct 1 · 05:15J. Kuzmicz—K. Wloczko——Oct 1 · 07:20J. Kuzmicz2.50A. Grela1.50—Oct 1 · 08:05J. Kuzmicz—D. Michna——
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