TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krystian Kolodziej vs Daniel Kostal 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141131012114––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeKrystian Kolodziej to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKrystian Kolodziej above · Daniel Kostal below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 66 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Krystian Kolodziej at 79.4%
66 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Kolodziej 2–0 Daniel Kostal Daniel Kostal has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Kolodziej beat Kostal 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:1979.4%Our read88.9%to break even at 1.125
short by 9.5pp88.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.125 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.13 (83%)
Kolodziej
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kolodziej 1761 vs Kostal 1659
Kolodziej
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolodziej 40% vs Kostal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolodziej 40% vs Kostal 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolodziej +1 · Kostal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Kolodziej) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostal form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (18%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolodziej 1.125 / Kostal 5.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Kolodziej)-9.5pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13242024
Kolodziej1.13
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As favourite75% won 428 of 572
Up 2–0, closes it97% 272 of 281
Up 1–0, closes it87% 354 of 408
Kostal5.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 24 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKolodziej2wins
AwayKostal0wins
Kolodziej leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKolodziejKostalKolodziej − KostalBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match39.025.5+13.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolodziejKostalBasisWin rate · lifetime1271 / 1910 vs 40 / 9766.5%41.2%1271 / 1910 vs 40 / 97Avg sets wonper match2.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.435.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejKolodziej 1.13/Kostal 5.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WOct 4 · 08:30K. Kolodziej341112113D. Kostal1951040
WSep 28 · 10:55K. Kolodziej44111111113D. Kostal32413961
K. Kolodziej10
WOct 4 · 11:15K. Kolodziej1.53711119113K. Wisniewski2.3811671132LOct 4 · 10:00P. David1.331211119113K. Kolodziej3.2514791162LOct 4 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.731012111162K. Kapik2.00121458113WOct 4 · 08:30K. Kolodziej1.401112113D. Kostal2.7551040LOct 4 · 06:55K. Kolodziej2.380M. Jadczyk1.533LOct 4 · 05:40K. Kolodziej3.40551121P. David1.3011118113WOct 4 · 04:10K. Kolodziej1.281111113K. Szurlej3.507420LOct 4 · 03:00K. Kolodziej1.4099111172K. Wisniewski2.75111177113LOct 2 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.6181381172K. Wloczko2.201111117113WOct 2 · 13:45J. Kuzmicz1.73811111162K. Kolodziej2.00111386113
D. Kostal10
LOct 4 · 11:40P. David1.2011118133D. Kostal4.339111111WOct 4 · 10:50D. Kostal2.0071112113K. Kapik1.731171041LOct 4 · 09:40D. Kostal4.001181281M. Jadczyk1.2241114113LOct 4 · 08:30K. Kolodziej1.401112113D. Kostal2.7551040WOct 4 · 07:20D. Kostal1.6191511113K. Wisniewski2.201113761LOct 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.221011511113D. Kostal4.0012911832LOct 4 · 04:55P. David1.201111113D. Kostal4.333770WOct 4 · 03:25K. Szurlej2.205960D. Kostal1.611111113LSep 28 · 14:35M. Sklensky1.30121111113D. Kostal3.20147891LSep 28 · 13:25D. Kostal3.60311231K. Wloczko1.2211311113
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