TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krystian Kolodziej vs Krzysztof Wloczko 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111311811117711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:19 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeKrystian Kolodziej to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKrystian Kolodziej above · Krzysztof Wloczko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 98 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Krystian Kolodziej at 58.1%
98 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Kolodziej 30–31 Krzysztof Wloczko Krystian Kolodziej has won 30 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1958.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolodziej
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
30-31 in 61
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolodziej 1799 vs Wloczko 1788
Kolodziej
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolodziej 80% vs Wloczko 60%
Kolodziej
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolodziej 70% vs Wloczko 50%
Kolodziej
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolodziej +1 · Wloczko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Kolodziej) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wloczko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolodziej 1.615 / Wloczko 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kolodziej)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13227506
Kolodziej1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite75% won 432 of 580
Up 2–0, closes it97% 274 of 283
Up 1–0, closes it87% 358 of 414
Wloczko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 147 of 382
Down 0–1, comes back17% 36 of 211
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolodziej6wins
AwayWloczko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKolodziej leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolodziej75%6 of 8
AwayWloczkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolodziej8Wloczko2n = 10Kolodziej took 8 of 10
S2Kolodziej5Wloczko5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolodziej3Wloczko7n = 10Wloczko took 7 of 10
S4Kolodziej3Wloczko4n = 7Wloczko took 4 of 7
S5Kolodziej2Wloczko1n = 3Kolodziej took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolodziejWloczkoK − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.938.4+1.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolodziejWloczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime1278 / 1912 vs 931 / 178266.8%52.2%1278 / 1912 vs 931 / 1782Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejKolodziej 1.61/Wloczko 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wloczko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 14:15K. Kolodziej259790K. Wloczko331111113
WSep 25 · 12:30K. Kolodziej47111168113K. Wloczko4579111172
WSep 11 · 14:35K. Kolodziej4515811113K. Wloczko361311661
LSep 10 · 14:35K. Kolodziej249780K. Wloczko331111113
LSep 8 · 14:10K. Kolodziej38119991K. Wloczko4071111113
WSep 2 · 13:20K. Kolodziej341211113K. Wloczko2710980
WAug 28 · 15:25K. Kolodziej46111167113K. Wloczko4699111162
WAug 21 · 12:55K. Kolodziej4211119113K. Wloczko32581181
LAug 14 · 12:10K. Kolodziej521111101282K. Wloczko50491214113
WAug 12 · 13:00K. Kolodziej4611815123K. Wloczko4281113101
K. Kolodziej10
WOct 2 · 13:45J. Kuzmicz1.73811111162K. Kolodziej2.00111386113LOct 2 · 12:55D. Michna1.6711168123K. Kolodziej2.1091411101WOct 2 · 12:05K. Kolodziej1.531112113J. Kwapis2.3831070WOct 2 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.50711118113M. Jadczyk1.5011791192WOct 1 · 14:10M. Rutkowski3.009390K. Kolodziej1.361111113LOct 1 · 13:20K. Wloczko2.1017511113K. Kolodziej1.671511791WOct 1 · 11:15L. Jarocki2.207811111K. Kolodziej1.6111114133LOct 1 · 10:25A. Grela1.4441111113K. Kolodziej2.63114461WOct 1 · 09:00D. Michna1.8311911642K. Kolodziej1.83911811113WSep 30 · 13:50K. Kolodziej2.03119911123G. Poliniewicz1.71911114102
K. Wloczko10
WOct 2 · 14:35J. Kwapis2.3870K. Wloczko1.5381LOct 2 · 12:30J. Kuzmicz2.1011611113K. Wloczko1.67911871WOct 2 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.50311661K. Wloczko2.5011911113LOct 2 · 10:00D. Michna1.61111111143K. Wloczko2.201358121WOct 2 · 08:05D. Michna1.6110513131K. Wloczko2.20121111153WOct 2 · 07:20G. Poliniewicz2.50781561K. Wloczko1.50111113113LOct 2 · 05:15J. Kwapis1.9111711123K. Wloczko1.806117101LOct 2 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.501111163K. Wloczko2.5029140LOct 2 · 03:00J. Kuzmicz1.731111113K. Wloczko2.009680WOct 1 · 13:20K. Wloczko2.1017511113K. Kolodziej1.671511791
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