TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kwapis vs Krzysztof Wloczko 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1167111171210––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:11 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Wloczko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Kwapis above · Krzysztof Wloczko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 75 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Krzysztof Wloczko at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kwapis 13–26 Krzysztof Wloczko Jakub Kwapis has won 13 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:1154.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Wloczko
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-26 in 39
Wloczko
Wrong
gap of 13 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kwapis 1685 vs Wloczko 1789
Wloczko
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kwapis 60% vs Wloczko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kwapis 60% vs Wloczko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kwapis +1 · Wloczko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Wloczko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKwapis 1.909 / Wloczko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wloczko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13227651
Kwapis1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 35 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Wloczko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 203 of 316
Up 2–0, closes it97% 88 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it80% 160 of 201
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKwapis3wins
AwayWloczko7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderWloczko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKwapis66.7%2 of 3
AwayWloczko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kwapis3Wloczko7n = 10Wloczko took 7 of 10
S2Kwapis4Wloczko6n = 10Wloczko took 6 of 10
S3Kwapis6Wloczko4n = 10Kwapis took 6 of 10
S4Kwapis2Wloczko4n = 6Wloczko took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKwapisWloczkoK − WBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.036.5−2.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKwapisWloczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 525 vs 932 / 178546.3%52.2%243 / 525 vs 932 / 1785Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WloczkoKwapis 1.91/Wloczko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wloczko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kwapis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 05:15J. Kwapis1910630K. Wloczko341211113
LSep 23 · 03:40J. Kwapis182970K. Wloczko331111113
LJul 14 · 15:00J. Kwapis50910131172K. Wloczko541112119113
LJun 11 · 13:40J. Kwapis35814671K. Wloczko45111211113
LJun 11 · 09:35J. Kwapis33861181K. Wloczko3611113113
WApr 21 · 07:10J. Kwapis4391112113K. Wloczko291161021
LApr 1 · 11:05J. Kwapis401199111K. Wloczko3941111133
WMar 31 · 05:20J. Kwapis401114153K. Wloczko32712130
LMar 30 · 07:35J. Kwapis29751161K. Wloczko4111118113
WMar 20 · 13:45J. Kwapis331111113K. Wloczko228860
J. Kwapis10
WOct 2 · 04:10J. Kuzmicz1.538770J. Kwapis2.381111113LOct 2 · 03:25J. Kwapis2.10611591G. Poliniewicz1.6711911113LOct 1 · 14:35J. Kwapis1.85351221P. Jendrzejewski1.85111110113WOct 1 · 13:00J. Kwapis2.1581111113K. Kapik1.62115561WOct 1 · 11:45J. Kwapis1.95116611113G. Poliniewicz1.7581111892WOct 1 · 10:05J. Kwapis1.95118117113M. Olbrycht1.7541141192LOct 1 · 09:00J. Kwapis1.5257121182M. Kolek2.301111109113LOct 1 · 08:05J. Kwapis1.9071161172M. Kolek1.81116116113WOct 1 · 06:25K. Wisniewski2.105930J. Kwapis1.661111113WOct 1 · 05:35M. Olbrycht1.676560J. Kwapis2.101111113
K. Wloczko10
LOct 2 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.501111163K. Wloczko2.5029140LOct 2 · 03:00J. Kuzmicz1.731111113K. Wloczko2.009680WOct 1 · 14:35D. Michna1.8311991142K. Wloczko1.83511116113WOct 1 · 13:20K. Wloczko2.1017511113K. Kolodziej1.671511791WOct 1 · 12:05A. Grela1.50610100K. Wloczko2.501112123WOct 1 · 10:50M. Rutkowski2.6391111872K. Wloczko1.44119811113WOct 1 · 09:20L. Jarocki1.9199100K. Wloczko1.801111123LOct 1 · 07:45K. Wloczko2.389340M. Jadczyk1.531111113LOct 1 · 06:30K. Wloczko1.83121165122D. Michna1.831041111143WOct 1 · 05:15K. Wloczko1.83111112153J. Kuzmicz1.838914131
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