TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kuzmicz vs Jakub Kwapis 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:04 and never touched: 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Kuzmicz to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Kuzmicz above · Jakub Kwapis below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 55 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Jakub Kuzmicz at 64.8%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kuzmicz 8–4 Jakub Kwapis Jakub Kwapis has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:0464.8%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 0.4pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kuzmicz
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Kuzmicz
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmicz 1809 vs Kwapis 1666
Kuzmicz
Wrong
both rated, 143 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmicz 40% vs Kwapis 60%
Kwapis
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmicz 50% vs Kwapis 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmicz +2 · Kwapis -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans Kuzmicz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwapis form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmicz 1.533 / Kwapis 2.375
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Kuzmicz)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13227342
Kuzmicz1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 402 of 641
Up 2–0, closes it98% 168 of 172
Up 1–0, closes it82% 281 of 341
Kwapis2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 30 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back13% 7 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzmicz7wins
AwayKwapis3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmicz75%3 of 4
AwayKwapis33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmicz4Kwapis6n = 10Kwapis took 6 of 10
S2Kuzmicz7Kwapis3n = 10Kuzmicz took 7 of 10
S3Kuzmicz5Kwapis5n = 10split evenly
S4Kuzmicz6Kwapis2n = 8Kuzmicz took 6 of 8
S5Kuzmicz3Kwapis2n = 5Kuzmicz took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzmiczKwapisKuzmicz − KwapisBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.740.6+2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmiczKwapisBasisWin rate · lifetime734 / 1277 vs 242 / 52457.5%46.2%734 / 1277 vs 242 / 524Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.936.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmiczKuzmicz 1.53/Kwapis 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Kuzmicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kwapis won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 21:50J. Kuzmicz4311591172J. Kwapis48711118113
WAug 26 · 17:20J. Kuzmicz536111112133J. Kwapis47114714112
WJul 14 · 23:55J. Kuzmicz45121111113J. Kwapis38147981
WJul 14 · 21:45J. Kuzmicz3851111113J. Kwapis34117971
LJul 13 · 23:15J. Kuzmicz49811101192J. Kwapis45116125113
WJul 13 · 21:00J. Kuzmicz44411711113J. Kwapis4411711692
WApr 20 · 05:05J. Kuzmicz531110117143J. Kwapis52912811122
WMar 19 · 14:35J. Kuzmicz331111113J. Kwapis259970
WMar 18 · 12:30J. Kuzmicz4211118123J. Kwapis377911101
LMar 18 · 05:15J. Kuzmicz2796120J. Kwapis361111143
J. Kuzmicz10
WOct 2 · 03:00J. Kuzmicz1.731111113K. Wloczko2.009680WOct 1 · 08:05D. Michna1.7313920J. Kuzmicz2.001511113LOct 1 · 07:20A. Grela1.441111113J. Kuzmicz2.634380LOct 1 · 05:15K. Wloczko1.83111112153J. Kuzmicz1.838914131LOct 1 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.731111133J. Kuzmicz2.0087110LOct 1 · 03:00L. Jarocki2.1011711113J. Kuzmicz1.67611931WSep 30 · 14:35A. Grela1.5011712482J. Kuzmicz2.504111011113LSep 30 · 13:20J. Kuzmicz1.6711512752M. Miastowski2.109111011113WSep 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.7311871182J. Kuzmicz2.00511115113WSep 30 · 10:50P. David1.361291181J. Kuzmicz3.00101113113
J. Kwapis10
LOct 2 · 03:25J. Kwapis2.10611591G. Poliniewicz1.6711911113LOct 1 · 14:35J. Kwapis1.85351221P. Jendrzejewski1.85111110113WOct 1 · 13:00J. Kwapis2.1581111113K. Kapik1.62115561WOct 1 · 11:45J. Kwapis1.95116611113G. Poliniewicz1.7581111892WOct 1 · 10:05J. Kwapis1.95118117113M. Olbrycht1.7541141192LOct 1 · 09:00J. Kwapis1.5257121182M. Kolek2.301111109113LOct 1 · 08:05J. Kwapis1.9071161172M. Kolek1.81116116113WOct 1 · 06:25K. Wisniewski2.105930J. Kwapis1.661111113WOct 1 · 05:35M. Olbrycht1.676560J. Kwapis2.101111113WOct 1 · 04:50J. Kwapis1.6311911113K. Kapik2.16511691
Upcoming Matches
J. Kuzmicz
Oct 2 · 05:40J. Kuzmicz2.38D. Michna1.53—Oct 2 · 06:55J. Kuzmicz1.83M. Jadczyk1.83—Oct 2 · 08:30J. Kuzmicz1.73G. Poliniewicz2.00—Oct 2 · 10:25J. Kuzmicz1.53J. Kwapis2.38—Oct 2 · 11:15J. Kuzmicz2.38D. Michna1.53—Oct 2 · 12:30J. Kuzmicz1.73K. Wloczko2.00—Oct 2 · 13:45J. Kuzmicz1.73K. Kolodziej2.00—Oct 2 · 15:00J. Kuzmicz1.83M. Jadczyk1.83—
J. Kwapis
Oct 2 · 05:15J. Kwapis1.91K. Wloczko1.80—Oct 2 · 06:30J. Kwapis2.63D. Michna1.44—Oct 2 · 07:45J. Kwapis3.00M. Jadczyk1.36—Oct 2 · 10:25J. Kwapis2.38J. Kuzmicz1.53—Oct 2 · 12:05J. Kwapis2.38K. Kolodziej1.53—Oct 2 · 13:20J. Kwapis3.00M. Jadczyk1.36—Oct 2 · 14:35J. Kwapis1.91K. Wloczko1.80—Oct 2 · 15:45J. Kwapis2.63D. Michna1.44—
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