TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krystian Kolodziej vs Jakub Kwapis 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131210117––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:01 and never touched: 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeKrystian Kolodziej to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKrystian Kolodziej above · Jakub Kwapis below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Krystian Kolodziej at 62.4%
54 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Kolodziej 5–1 Jakub Kwapis Jakub Kwapis has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0162.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.8pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kolodziej
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Kolodziej
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolodziej 1799 vs Kwapis 1707
Kolodziej
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolodziej 60% vs Kwapis 80%
Kwapis
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolodziej 60% vs Kwapis 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolodziej +2 · Kwapis -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Kolodziej) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwapis form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolodziej 1.533 / Kwapis 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kolodziej)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13227314
Kolodziej1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite75% won 432 of 580
Up 2–0, closes it97% 274 of 283
Up 1–0, closes it87% 358 of 414
Kwapis2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 35 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKolodziej5wins
AwayKwapis1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderKolodziej leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolodziej80%4 of 5
AwayKwapisn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolodziej5Kwapis1n = 6Kolodziej took 5 of 6
S2Kolodziej4Kwapis2n = 6Kolodziej took 4 of 6
S3Kolodziej5Kwapis1n = 6Kolodziej took 5 of 6
S4Kolodziej3Kwapis0n = 3Kolodziej took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKolodziejKwapisKolodziej − KwapisBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match37.023.7+13.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolodziejKwapisBasisWin rate · lifetime1277 / 1910 vs 246 / 53066.9%46.4%1277 / 1910 vs 246 / 530Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejKolodziej 1.53/Kwapis 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WOct 2 · 12:05K. Kolodziej341112113J. Kwapis2031070
WAug 26 · 20:05K. Kolodziej331111113J. Kwapis142570
WJul 13 · 16:30K. Kolodziej3631111113J. Kwapis25114461
LJul 8 · 17:20K. Kolodziej45119311112J. Kwapis48811115133
WJun 24 · 20:05K. Kolodziej4111811113J. Kwapis23411621
WJun 27 · 18:35K. Kolodziej331111113J. Kwapis127230
K. Kolodziej10
LOct 2 · 12:55D. Michna1.6711168123K. Kolodziej2.1091411101WOct 2 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.50711118113M. Jadczyk1.5011791192WOct 1 · 14:10M. Rutkowski3.009390K. Kolodziej1.361111113LOct 1 · 13:20K. Wloczko2.1017511113K. Kolodziej1.671511791WOct 1 · 11:15L. Jarocki2.207811111K. Kolodziej1.6111114133LOct 1 · 10:25A. Grela1.4441111113K. Kolodziej2.63114461WOct 1 · 09:00D. Michna1.8311911642K. Kolodziej1.83911811113WSep 30 · 13:50K. Kolodziej2.03119911123G. Poliniewicz1.71911114102WSep 30 · 12:35K. Kolodziej1.201111113M. Rutkowski3.806330LSep 30 · 11:20K. Kolodziej1.37129117102A. Spychala2.751011711123
J. Kwapis10
LOct 2 · 10:25J. Kuzmicz1.571111113J. Kwapis2.257590WOct 2 · 07:45J. Kwapis3.00128611113M. Jadczyk1.36101111652WOct 2 · 06:30J. Kwapis2.63811611113D. Michna1.4411811782WOct 2 · 05:15J. Kwapis1.9111711123K. Wloczko1.806117101WOct 2 · 04:10J. Kuzmicz1.538770J. Kwapis2.381111113LOct 2 · 03:25J. Kwapis2.10611591G. Poliniewicz1.6711911113LOct 1 · 14:35J. Kwapis1.85351221P. Jendrzejewski1.85111110113WOct 1 · 13:00J. Kwapis2.1581111113K. Kapik1.62115561WOct 1 · 11:45J. Kwapis1.95116611113G. Poliniewicz1.7581111892WOct 1 · 10:05J. Kwapis1.95118117113M. Olbrycht1.7541141192
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