TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Rutkowski vs Krystian Kolodziej 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911311911––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:57 and never touched: 73.1% is still 73.1%
Graded at full timeKrystian Kolodziej to win
73.1%
73.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 · our read held Krystian Kolodziej at 73.1%
54 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 11–78 Krystian Kolodziej Mateusz Rutkowski has won 11 of their 89 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5773.1%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.3pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Kolodziej
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-78 in 89
Kolodziej
Correct
gap of 67 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1703 vs Kolodziej 1761
Kolodziej
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 60% vs Kolodziej 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 40% vs Kolodziej 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +2 · Kolodziej -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Kolodziej) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 3.00 / Kolodziej 1.363
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Kolodziej)-0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13222303
Rutkowski3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 121 of 300
Down 0–1, comes back21% 38 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 88
Kolodziej1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite75% won 434 of 582
Up 2–0, closes it97% 274 of 283
Up 1–0, closes it87% 359 of 415
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski1wins
AwayKolodziej9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKolodziej leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowskin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKolodziej88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski1Kolodziej9n = 10Kolodziej took 9 of 10
S2Rutkowski3Kolodziej7n = 10Kolodziej took 7 of 10
S3Rutkowski2Kolodziej8n = 10Kolodziej took 8 of 10
S4Rutkowski2Kolodziej3n = 5Kolodziej took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiKolodziejR − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match26.037.0−11.0per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime825 / 1471 vs 1274 / 190756.1%66.8%825 / 1471 vs 1274 / 1907Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejRutkowski 3.00/Kolodziej 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.1%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1811610K. Kolodziej351311113
LAug 31 · 20:05M. Rutkowski43471111102K. Kolodziej47111194123
LAug 28 · 21:20M. Rutkowski33811771K. Kolodziej3411111113
LAug 26 · 16:55M. Rutkowski25127511K. Kolodziej43101111113
LAug 17 · 15:00M. Rutkowski1911350K. Kolodziej351311113
LAug 5 · 17:20M. Rutkowski123540K. Kolodziej331111113
LAug 2 · 17:20M. Rutkowski174580K. Kolodziej331111113
WJul 30 · 18:50M. Rutkowski3961111113K. Kolodziej31119561
LJul 2 · 17:45M. Rutkowski3610123111K. Kolodziej46121011133
LJun 29 · 18:50M. Rutkowski184680K. Kolodziej331111113
M. Rutkowski10
WOct 1 · 12:30L. Jarocki1.61791391M. Rutkowski2.20111111113WOct 1 · 11:40D. Michna1.40661191M. Rutkowski2.7511115113LOct 1 · 10:50M. Rutkowski2.6391111872K. Wloczko1.44119811113LOct 1 · 09:40M. Rutkowski5.505970A. Grela1.131111113WSep 30 · 14:15M. Rutkowski1.95411115113A. Spychala1.7511671182LSep 30 · 12:35K. Kolodziej1.201111113M. Rutkowski3.806330LSep 30 · 11:45M. Olbrycht1.8011514113M. Rutkowski1.859111261LSep 30 · 10:55M. Rutkowski2.00811101182L. Jarocki1.70114128113LSep 30 · 09:45M. Rutkowski1.98813111282G. Poliniewicz1.731115310113WSep 28 · 13:50M. Rutkowski2.0011101014113K. Kapik1.73512121282
K. Kolodziej10
LOct 1 · 13:20K. Wloczko2.1017511113K. Kolodziej1.671511791WOct 1 · 11:15L. Jarocki2.207811111K. Kolodziej1.6111114133LOct 1 · 10:25A. Grela1.4441111113K. Kolodziej2.63114461WOct 1 · 09:00D. Michna1.8311911642K. Kolodziej1.83911811113WSep 30 · 13:50K. Kolodziej2.03119911123G. Poliniewicz1.71911114102WSep 30 · 12:35K. Kolodziej1.201111113M. Rutkowski3.806330LSep 30 · 11:20K. Kolodziej1.37129117102A. Spychala2.751011711123LSep 30 · 10:05M. Olbrycht3.65471111113K. Kolodziej1.2211118972LSep 30 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.51105100L. Jarocki2.401211123WSep 29 · 14:35J. Kuzmicz2.10541171K. Kolodziej1.6511116113
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