TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Michal Olbrycht vs Mateusz Rutkowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1195111412116––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:40 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Mateusz Rutkowski @ 1.71 · Lost
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
1195111412116––
H2H Michal Olbrycht 32–37 Mateusz Rutkowski Michal Olbrycht has won 32 of their 69 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 11:4054.0%Our read54.1%to break even at 1.85
short by 0.1pp54.1% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.85 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Olbrycht
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-37 in 69
Rutkowski
Wrong
gap of 5 in 69, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Olbrycht 1704 vs Rutkowski 1696
Olbrycht
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Olbrycht 40% vs Rutkowski 60%
Rutkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Olbrycht 50% vs Rutkowski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Olbrycht +2 · Rutkowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Olbrycht form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOlbrycht 1.80 / Rutkowski 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rutkowski)-0.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13222046
Olbrycht1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 91 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it83% 68 of 82
Rutkowski1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 120 of 295
Down 0–1, comes back21% 37 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOlbrycht3wins
AwayRutkowski7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOlbrycht33.3%2 of 6
AwayRutkowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Olbrycht6Rutkowski4n = 10Olbrycht took 6 of 10
S2Olbrycht5Rutkowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Olbrycht2Rutkowski8n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S4Olbrycht3Rutkowski7n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S5Olbrycht2Rutkowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOlbrychtRutkowskiO − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.843.0−5.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOlbrychtRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 801 vs 822 / 146447.6%56.2%381 / 801 vs 822 / 1464Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiOlbrycht 1.80/Rutkowski 1.85
Miss
What we said
54%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Mateusz Rutkowski @ 1.71 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Olbrycht won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 13:00M. Olbrycht29211971M. Rutkowski4211911113
WSep 16 · 11:45M. Olbrycht51813811113M. Rutkowski47111111592
LSep 9 · 21:25M. Olbrycht31113891M. Rutkowski3741111113
WSep 3 · 00:35M. Olbrycht4011711113M. Rutkowski34911861
LSep 2 · 00:10M. Olbrycht35128781M. Rutkowski43101111113
LAug 19 · 21:50M. Olbrycht42111112352M. Rutkowski51691411113
WAug 19 · 00:10M. Olbrycht45113119113M. Rutkowski4571191172
LAug 13 · 00:10M. Olbrycht34811781M. Rutkowski4211911113
LAug 11 · 22:55M. Olbrycht4271171162M. Rutkowski44117114113
LAug 8 · 18:05M. Olbrycht291310331M. Rutkowski45111211113
M. Olbrycht10
WSep 30 · 10:05M. Olbrycht3.65471111113K. Kolodziej1.2211118972WSep 30 · 09:00M. Olbrycht1.8011115153A. Spychala1.809811131LSep 30 · 07:40A. Spychala1.8511511113M. Olbrycht1.80711451LSep 30 · 06:50G. Poliniewicz1.9111117113M. Olbrycht1.80971181LSep 30 · 06:00M. Olbrycht2.0069111242K. Wisniewski1.721111610113WSep 30 · 04:25M. Olbrycht2.401111123J. Kuzmicz1.5097100WSep 30 · 03:40L. Jarocki1.57871151M. Olbrycht2.2511114113LSep 28 · 00:10J. Kuzmicz1.30611138113M. Olbrycht3.40118111182WSep 27 · 23:45M. Olbrycht1.571111143M. Kolek2.2578120LSep 27 · 22:55M. Olbrycht1.619830L. Pietraszko2.201111113
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 30 · 10:55M. Rutkowski2.00811101182L. Jarocki1.70114128113LSep 30 · 09:45M. Rutkowski1.98813111282G. Poliniewicz1.731115310113WSep 28 · 13:50M. Rutkowski2.0011101014113K. Kapik1.73512121282WSep 28 · 12:35M. Rutkowski3.9011113113K. Kolodziej1.20781151WSep 28 · 11:20M. Rutkowski1.82711118113K. Wloczko1.8911851192WSep 28 · 10:05M. Sklensky1.5211144652M. Rutkowski2.383121111113LSep 28 · 09:20M. Rutkowski2.12112951D. Kostal1.6571111113LSep 28 · 08:30M. Rutkowski1.8767100K. Kapik1.831111123WSep 28 · 06:50M. Rutkowski1.751111113D. Kostal1.954880LSep 28 · 05:35M. Rutkowski2.601110961M. Sklensky1.4281211113
Upcoming Matches
M. Olbrycht
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M. Rutkowski
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