TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Rutkowski vs Daniel Kostal 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117211911511––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:14 and never touched — 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
67 points played in total.
Set by set
117211911511––
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 2–0 Daniel Kostal Daniel Kostal has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Rutkowski beat Kostal 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:14What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Kostal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1675 vs Kostal 1650
Rutkowski
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 40% vs Kostal 60%
Kostal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 50% vs Kostal 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski -1 · Kostal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Rutkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 2.12 / Kostal 1.65
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Rutkowski)+16.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13209919
Rutkowski2.12
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 121 of 299
Down 0–1, comes back21% 37 of 180
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 89
Kostal1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 9 of 13
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeRutkowski2wins
AwayKostal0wins
Rutkowski leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricRutkowskiKostalR − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match33.521.5+12.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiKostalBasisWin rate · lifetime818 / 1457 vs 35 / 8456.1%41.7%818 / 1457 vs 35 / 84Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.935.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 2.12/Kostal 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.4%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kostal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 28 · 06:50M. Rutkowski331111113D. Kostal204880
WSep 18 · 10:55M. Rutkowski341111123D. Kostal2394100
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 28 · 10:05M. Sklensky1.5211144652M. Rutkowski2.383121111113LSep 28 · 08:30M. Rutkowski1.8767100K. Kapik1.831111123WSep 28 · 06:50M. Rutkowski1.751111113D. Kostal1.954880LSep 28 · 05:35M. Rutkowski2.601110961M. Sklensky1.4281211113LSep 28 · 04:00M. Rutkowski2.051011781J. Kuzmicz1.6512811113WSep 28 · 03:00M. Rutkowski2.10111156113G. Poliniewicz1.6095111162WSep 24 · 13:50J. Zochniak2.4581141122M. Rutkowski1.47117115113WSep 24 · 13:00M. Malachowski1.85651111122M. Rutkowski1.85111197143LSep 24 · 12:10M. Rutkowski1.901131541G. Poliniewicz1.75131113113LSep 24 · 10:30M. Rutkowski1.7073120J. Kwapis2.001111143
D. Kostal10
WSep 28 · 07:40J. Kuzmicz1.301191341D. Kostal3.1091115113LSep 28 · 06:50M. Rutkowski1.751111113D. Kostal1.954880LSep 28 · 06:00D. Kostal2.053540K. Kapik1.691111113WSep 28 · 04:25D. Kostal2.451113113G. Poliniewicz1.4591150WSep 28 · 03:40M. Sklensky1.426111071D. Kostal2.6011312113LSep 26 · 23:20M. Olbrycht1.831111113D. Kostal1.838870WSep 26 · 22:35J. Kuzmicz1.306890D. Kostal3.401111113WSep 26 · 22:10D. Kostal2.3811124113F. Mlynarski1.539101151WSep 26 · 21:00M. Kolek1.6061191182D. Kostal2.10118115113LSep 26 · 20:30D. Kostal1.831411891M. Olbrycht1.8316811113
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski
Nothing scheduled
D. Kostal
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