TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Rutkowski vs Grzegorz Poliniewicz 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Sep 28Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119115511611116
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:58 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Poliniewicz to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
86 points played in total.
Set by set
119115511611116
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 5–5 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Poliniewicz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1683 vs Poliniewicz 1718
Poliniewicz
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 60% vs Poliniewicz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 60% vs Poliniewicz 40%
Rutkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +2 · Poliniewicz +3
Poliniewicz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Poliniewicz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 2.10 / Poliniewicz 1.60
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Poliniewicz)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13205743
Rutkowski2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 24)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 121 of 301
Down 0–1, comes back21% 38 of 182
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 91
Poliniewicz1.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 25)
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 320 of 450
Up 2–0, closes it95% 145 of 152
Up 1–0, closes it84% 237 of 283
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski5wins
AwayPoliniewicz5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski100%4 of 4
AwayPoliniewicz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski4Poliniewicz6n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S2Rutkowski4Poliniewicz6n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S3Rutkowski7Poliniewicz3n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S4Rutkowski6Poliniewicz2n = 8Rutkowski took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiPoliniewiczR − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.240.2−2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime817 / 1453 vs 1218 / 208756.2%58.4%817 / 1453 vs 1218 / 2087Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PoliniewiczRutkowski 2.10/Poliniewicz 1.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.8%
Poliniewicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 24 · 12:10M. Rutkowski331131541G. Poliniewicz48131113113
WSep 24 · 04:50M. Rutkowski4513317123G. Poliniewicz47111115101
WSep 23 · 09:45M. Rutkowski3711114113G. Poliniewicz35871191
LSep 21 · 12:35M. Rutkowski49119111172G. Poliniewicz52131198113
LSep 17 · 14:35M. Rutkowski37891191G. Poliniewicz3811115113
WSep 16 · 12:35M. Rutkowski4571111163G. Poliniewicz391186141
WSep 14 · 14:15M. Rutkowski4313611133G. Poliniewicz3811115111
LJan 23 · 12:05M. Rutkowski4051161172G. Poliniewicz47118116113
LJan 16 · 15:25M. Rutkowski206680G. Poliniewicz331111113
WJan 1 · 10:05M. Rutkowski331111113G. Poliniewicz257990
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 28 · 04:00M. Rutkowski2.051011781J. Kuzmicz1.6512811113WSep 24 · 13:50J. Zochniak2.4581141122M. Rutkowski1.47117115113WSep 24 · 13:00M. Malachowski1.85651111122M. Rutkowski1.85111197143LSep 24 · 12:10M. Rutkowski1.901131541G. Poliniewicz1.75131113113LSep 24 · 10:30M. Rutkowski1.7073120J. Kwapis2.001111143WSep 24 · 09:45K. Kapik2.1011101110122M. Rutkowski1.65712312143LSep 24 · 08:30A. Daniel1.6511911113M. Rutkowski2.05411621LSep 24 · 07:15M. Rutkowski2.257660K. Wloczko1.551111113WSep 24 · 06:00M. Malachowski1.8761070M. Rutkowski1.831112113WSep 24 · 04:50G. Poliniewicz1.95111115101M. Rutkowski1.7713317123
G. Poliniewicz10
LSep 28 · 04:25D. Kostal2.451113113G. Poliniewicz1.4591150WSep 25 · 13:50G. Poliniewicz1.49117911113D. Kosmal2.4581111582WSep 25 · 12:35G. Poliniewicz2.201211113M. Nowalinski1.5710870WSep 25 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz1.77711811113M. Malachowski1.9311911482LSep 25 · 10:05K. Kapik1.80139119113G. Poliniewicz1.85111191182LSep 25 · 09:20G. Poliniewicz2.307520P. Klos1.551111113WSep 25 · 08:30G. Poliniewicz1.7371111113D. Kosmal1.98113741LSep 25 · 06:50G. Poliniewicz2.309131115112P. Klos1.521115413133WSep 24 · 12:10M. Rutkowski1.901131541G. Poliniewicz1.75131113113LSep 24 · 04:50G. Poliniewicz1.95111115101M. Rutkowski1.7713317123
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski
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G. Poliniewicz
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