TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Lukasz Jarocki vs Krystian Kolodziej 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7118111141113––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:06 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeKrystian Kolodziej to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Jarocki above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 76 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Krystian Kolodziej at 57.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Jarocki 68–69 Krystian Kolodziej Lukasz Jarocki has won 68 of their 137 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:0657.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolodziej
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
68-69 in 137
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jarocki 1747 vs Kolodziej 1760
Kolodziej
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jarocki 20% vs Kolodziej 60%
Kolodziej
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jarocki 40% vs Kolodziej 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jarocki -4 · Kolodziej -1
Jarocki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Kolodziej) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jarocki form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJarocki 2.20 / Kolodziej 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kolodziej)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13222207
Jarocki2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 56 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back27% 18 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Kolodziej1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite75% won 434 of 582
Up 2–0, closes it97% 274 of 283
Up 1–0, closes it87% 359 of 415
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJarocki3wins
AwayKolodziej7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKolodziej leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJarocki42.9%3 of 7
AwayKolodziej100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jarocki7Kolodziej3n = 10Jarocki took 7 of 10
S2Jarocki4Kolodziej6n = 10Kolodziej took 6 of 10
S3Jarocki4Kolodziej6n = 10Kolodziej took 6 of 10
S4Jarocki2Kolodziej6n = 8Kolodziej took 6 of 8
S5Jarocki2Kolodziej4n = 6Kolodziej took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJarockiKolodziejJ − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.842.8−3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJarockiKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime795 / 1421 vs 1273 / 190556%66.8%795 / 1421 vs 1273 / 1905Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejJarocki 2.20/Kolodziej 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 09:20L. Jarocki351211123K. Kolodziej25105100
LAug 31 · 16:55L. Jarocki25117251K. Kolodziej4291111113
WJul 28 · 18:30L. Jarocki39113113113K. Kolodziej3871121172
LJul 13 · 15:45L. Jarocki4711711992K. Kolodziej49911711113
LMay 27 · 16:40L. Jarocki45101111852K. Kolodziej46129311113
LApr 21 · 16:40L. Jarocki47125101192K. Kolodziej521011128113
WApr 20 · 17:00L. Jarocki531311810113K. Kolodziej49118111272
LApr 3 · 20:10L. Jarocki2541290K. Kolodziej361114113
LApr 1 · 17:25L. Jarocki32911841K. Kolodziej3811511113
LMar 30 · 20:10L. Jarocki5011981392K. Kolodziej539111111113
L. Jarocki10
LOct 1 · 10:00D. Michna1.50111011113L. Jarocki2.50312621LOct 1 · 09:20L. Jarocki1.9199100K. Wloczko1.801111123LOct 1 · 08:30L. Jarocki2.6391060A. Grela1.441112113LOct 1 · 06:55L. Jarocki2.758950M. Jadczyk1.401111113WOct 1 · 05:40L. Jarocki2.38911115113D. Michna1.5311841182WOct 1 · 04:10L. Jarocki1.831111143K. Wloczko1.8378120WOct 1 · 03:00L. Jarocki2.1011711113J. Kuzmicz1.67611931WSep 30 · 14:35M. Olbrycht2.2513119692L. Jarocki1.581181111113LSep 30 · 13:25L. Jarocki1.7211811542A. Spychala2.00911211113LSep 30 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz1.951211410113L. Jarocki1.75108111292
K. Kolodziej10
LOct 1 · 10:25A. Grela1.4441111113K. Kolodziej2.63114461WOct 1 · 09:00D. Michna1.8311911642K. Kolodziej1.83911811113WSep 30 · 13:50K. Kolodziej2.03119911123G. Poliniewicz1.71911114102WSep 30 · 12:35K. Kolodziej1.201111113M. Rutkowski3.806330LSep 30 · 11:20K. Kolodziej1.37129117102A. Spychala2.751011711123LSep 30 · 10:05M. Olbrycht3.65471111113K. Kolodziej1.2211118972LSep 30 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.51105100L. Jarocki2.401211123WSep 29 · 14:35J. Kuzmicz2.10541171K. Kolodziej1.6511116113WSep 29 · 13:25K. Kolodziej1.271111113K. Staszczyk3.504960LSep 29 · 12:10M. Sklensky2.15911311113K. Kolodziej1.6211511392
Upcoming Matches
L. Jarocki
K. Kolodziej
Oct 1 · 13:20K. Kolodziej1.67K. Wloczko2.10—Oct 1 · 14:10K. Kolodziej1.36M. Rutkowski3.00—Oct 2 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.50M. Jadczyk1.50—Oct 2 · 12:05K. Kolodziej1.50J. Kwapis2.50—Oct 2 · 12:55K. Kolodziej2.10D. Michna1.67—Oct 2 · 13:45K. Kolodziej2.00J. Kuzmicz1.73—Oct 2 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.57K. Wloczko2.25—
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