TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Michna vs Krzysztof Wloczko 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11131151181412––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:47 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDawid Michna to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Krzysztof Wloczko below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 85 set 4, 14-12 · our read held Dawid Michna at 57.7%
85 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 28–25 Krzysztof Wloczko Krzysztof Wloczko has won 25 of their 53 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Wloczko beat Michna 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:4757.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Michna
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
28-25 in 53
Michna
Correct
gap of 3 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1828 vs Wloczko 1785
Michna
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 40% vs Wloczko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 30% vs Wloczko 70%
Wloczko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -2 · Wloczko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Michna) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 1.615 / Wloczko 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Michna)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13228054
Michna1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 69 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it79% 54 of 68
Wloczko2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 147 of 382
Down 0–1, comes back17% 36 of 211
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 125
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna6wins
AwayWloczko4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna80%4 of 5
AwayWloczko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna5Wloczko5n = 10split evenly
S2Michna3Wloczko7n = 10Wloczko took 7 of 10
S3Michna7Wloczko3n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S4Michna6Wloczko1n = 7Michna took 6 of 7
S5Michna2Wloczko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaWloczkoM − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.837.6+3.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaWloczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime498 / 921 vs 931 / 178554.1%52.2%498 / 921 vs 931 / 1785Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MichnaMichna 1.61/Wloczko 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Michna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 10:00D. Michna47111111143K. Wloczko381358121
LOct 2 · 08:05D. Michna4110513131K. Wloczko49121111153
LOct 1 · 14:35D. Michna4411991142K. Wloczko44511116113
WOct 1 · 06:30D. Michna501041111143K. Wloczko46121165122
WSep 10 · 11:40D. Michna331111113K. Wloczko215970
WSep 10 · 03:20D. Michna43111011113K. Wloczko26512631
LSep 9 · 04:30D. Michna4696131172K. Wloczko531111119113
LSep 3 · 07:20D. Michna237970K. Wloczko331111113
WJun 18 · 10:25D. Michna48119611113K. Wloczko3951111572
WApr 24 · 15:10D. Michna331111113K. Wloczko279990
D. Michna10
LOct 2 · 08:05D. Michna1.6110513131K. Wloczko2.20121111153LOct 2 · 06:30J. Kwapis2.63811611113D. Michna1.4411811782WOct 2 · 05:40J. Kuzmicz2.38111291072D. Michna1.537101112113WOct 2 · 04:55D. Michna1.3613613113G. Poliniewicz3.0011111191LOct 2 · 03:45D. Michna2.00137981M. Jadczyk1.73111111113LOct 1 · 14:35D. Michna1.8311991142K. Wloczko1.83511116113LOct 1 · 12:55D. Michna2.00115101192A. Grela1.73911120113LOct 1 · 11:40D. Michna1.40661191M. Rutkowski2.7511115113WOct 1 · 10:00D. Michna1.50111011113L. Jarocki2.50312621LOct 1 · 09:00D. Michna1.8311911642K. Kolodziej1.83911811113
K. Wloczko10
WOct 2 · 08:05D. Michna1.6110513131K. Wloczko2.20121111153WOct 2 · 07:20G. Poliniewicz2.50781561K. Wloczko1.50111113113LOct 2 · 05:15J. Kwapis1.9111711123K. Wloczko1.806117101LOct 2 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.501111163K. Wloczko2.5029140LOct 2 · 03:00J. Kuzmicz1.731111113K. Wloczko2.009680WOct 1 · 14:35D. Michna1.8311991142K. Wloczko1.83511116113WOct 1 · 13:20K. Wloczko2.1017511113K. Kolodziej1.671511791WOct 1 · 12:05A. Grela1.50610100K. Wloczko2.501112123WOct 1 · 10:50M. Rutkowski2.6391111872K. Wloczko1.44119811113WOct 1 · 09:20L. Jarocki1.9199100K. Wloczko1.801111123
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