TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Michna vs Grzegorz Poliniewicz 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13116111311119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:45 and never touched: 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeDawid Michna to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Grzegorz Poliniewicz below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 85 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Dawid Michna at 73.2%
85 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 6–3 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Grzegorz Poliniewicz has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:4573.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 0.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Michna
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Michna
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1836 vs Poliniewicz 1690
Michna
Correct
both rated, 146 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 20% vs Poliniewicz 40%
Poliniewicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 30% vs Poliniewicz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -4 · Poliniewicz +2
Michna
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% · Strong (leans Michna) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 1.363 / Poliniewicz 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Michna)-0.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13227377
Michna1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 69 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it79% 54 of 68
Poliniewicz3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 132 of 365
Down 0–1, comes back19% 40 of 211
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMichna6wins
AwayPoliniewicz3wins
1 of 9 to a deciderMichna leads 6–3, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna71.4%5 of 7
AwayPoliniewiczn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna7Poliniewicz2n = 9Michna took 7 of 9
S2Michna5Poliniewicz4n = 9Michna took 5 of 9
S3Michna6Poliniewicz3n = 9Michna took 6 of 9
S4Michna2Poliniewicz4n = 6Poliniewicz took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricMichnaPoliniewiczM − PBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match37.834.6+3.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime499 / 922 vs 1229 / 211154.1%58.2%499 / 922 vs 1229 / 2111Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MichnaMichna 1.36/Poliniewicz 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Michna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJul 6 · 06:05D. Michna44101111123G. Poliniewicz401299101
WMar 4 · 13:20D. Michna49118118113G. Poliniewicz3881131152
LFeb 9 · 04:55D. Michna28671141G. Poliniewicz4111118113
WJan 5 · 08:55D. Michna331111113G. Poliniewicz247980
LNov 16 · 05:40D. Michna4313811111G. Poliniewicz48111113133
WJul 26 · 16:25D. Michna331111113G. Poliniewicz259790
LApr 10 · 01:30D. Michna32117771G. Poliniewicz3631111113
WApr 9 · 23:00D. Michna351111133G. Poliniewicz2476110
WApr 9 · 16:40D. Michna43111110113G. Poliniewicz35991251
D. Michna10
WOct 2 · 05:40J. Kuzmicz2.38111291072D. Michna1.537101112113LOct 2 · 03:45D. Michna2.00137981M. Jadczyk1.73111111113LOct 1 · 14:35D. Michna1.8311991142K. Wloczko1.83511116113LOct 1 · 12:55D. Michna2.00115101192A. Grela1.73911120113LOct 1 · 11:40D. Michna1.40661191M. Rutkowski2.7511115113WOct 1 · 10:00D. Michna1.50111011113L. Jarocki2.50312621LOct 1 · 09:00D. Michna1.8311911642K. Kolodziej1.83911811113LOct 1 · 08:05D. Michna1.7313920J. Kuzmicz2.001511113WOct 1 · 06:30K. Wloczko1.83121165122D. Michna1.831041111143LOct 1 · 05:40L. Jarocki2.38911115113D. Michna1.5311841182
G. Poliniewicz10
LOct 2 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.251111113G. Poliniewicz3.756980WOct 2 · 03:25J. Kwapis2.10611591G. Poliniewicz1.6711911113WOct 1 · 14:15G. Poliniewicz1.6212511123M. Kolek2.2010116101LOct 1 · 12:35M. Olbrycht1.9351111123G. Poliniewicz1.771168101LOct 1 · 11:45J. Kwapis1.95116611113G. Poliniewicz1.7581111892LOct 1 · 10:55G. Poliniewicz1.90681191P. Jendrzejewski1.8011117113WOct 1 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz1.83129119113K. Kapik1.88101141172LSep 30 · 13:50K. Kolodziej2.03119911123G. Poliniewicz1.71911114102LSep 30 · 13:00M. Olbrycht1.801111123G. Poliniewicz1.9067100WSep 30 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz1.951211410113L. Jarocki1.75108111292
Upcoming Matches
D. Michna
G. Poliniewicz
Oct 2 · 07:20G. Poliniewicz2.50K. Wloczko1.50—Oct 2 · 08:30G. Poliniewicz2.00J. Kuzmicz1.73—Oct 2 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz—K. Kapik——Oct 2 · 10:30G. Poliniewicz—K. Wisniewski——Oct 2 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz—M. Rutkowski——Oct 2 · 13:00G. Poliniewicz—D. Kosmal——Oct 2 · 13:50G. Poliniewicz—P. Jendrzejewski——
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