TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Jadczyk vs Grzegorz Poliniewicz 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119118––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:58 and never touched: 81.3% is still 81.3%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
81.3%
81.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Grzegorz Poliniewicz below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 56 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 81.3%
56 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 10–2 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Grzegorz Poliniewicz has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5881.3%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
clears by 1.3pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-2 in 12
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1917 vs Poliniewicz 1683
Jadczyk
Correct
both rated, 233 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 80% vs Poliniewicz 40%
Jadczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 60% vs Poliniewicz 40%
Jadczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk +4 · Poliniewicz -1
Jadczyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% · Strong (leans Jadczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.25 / Poliniewicz 3.75
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Jadczyk)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13227667
Jadczyk1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite63% won 404 of 644
Up 2–0, closes it95% 206 of 216
Up 1–0, closes it82% 317 of 388
Poliniewicz3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 132 of 365
Down 0–1, comes back19% 40 of 211
Down 0–2, comes back7% 9 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk8wins
AwayPoliniewicz2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJadczyk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk87.5%7 of 8
AwayPoliniewiczn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk8Poliniewicz2n = 10Jadczyk took 8 of 10
S2Jadczyk7Poliniewicz3n = 10Jadczyk took 7 of 10
S3Jadczyk5Poliniewicz5n = 10split evenly
S4Jadczyk4Poliniewicz3n = 7Jadczyk took 4 of 7
S5Jadczyk3Poliniewicz1n = 4Jadczyk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykPoliniewiczJ − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.935.3+5.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime983 / 1688 vs 1227 / 211058.2%58.2%983 / 1688 vs 1227 / 2110Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJadczyk 1.25/Poliniewicz 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.3%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 2 · 06:05M. Jadczyk331111113G. Poliniewicz236980
WSep 19 · 12:05M. Jadczyk511011811113G. Poliniewicz3912811532
WSep 19 · 07:45M. Jadczyk4311129113G. Poliniewicz357101171
WSep 11 · 07:45M. Jadczyk4817911113G. Poliniewicz401511771
WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk481111510113G. Poliniewicz4779111282
WJul 27 · 12:55M. Jadczyk50118119113G. Poliniewicz4281151172
LJul 27 · 07:45M. Jadczyk29712641G. Poliniewicz43111011113
WJun 30 · 04:30M. Jadczyk331111113G. Poliniewicz187740
LMar 15 · 05:40M. Jadczyk41114411112G. Poliniewicz49811116133
WFeb 12 · 08:55M. Jadczyk331111113G. Poliniewicz177820
M. Jadczyk10
WOct 2 · 06:55J. Kuzmicz1.839860M. Jadczyk1.831111113WOct 2 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.501111163K. Wloczko2.5029140WOct 2 · 03:45D. Michna2.00137981M. Jadczyk1.73111111113WOct 1 · 07:45K. Wloczko2.389340M. Jadczyk1.531111113WOct 1 · 06:55L. Jarocki2.758950M. Jadczyk1.401111113LOct 1 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.00111210882A. Grela1.739101211113WOct 1 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.731111133J. Kuzmicz2.0087110LOct 1 · 03:45D. Michna1.83915115113M. Jadczyk1.83111381182LSep 30 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.10791311113M. Jadczyk1.67111111442WSep 30 · 12:55A. Grela1.91411881M. Jadczyk1.8011511113
G. Poliniewicz10
LOct 2 · 04:55D. Michna1.3613613113G. Poliniewicz3.0011111191WOct 2 · 03:25J. Kwapis2.10611591G. Poliniewicz1.6711911113WOct 1 · 14:15G. Poliniewicz1.6212511123M. Kolek2.2010116101LOct 1 · 12:35M. Olbrycht1.9351111123G. Poliniewicz1.771168101LOct 1 · 11:45J. Kwapis1.95116611113G. Poliniewicz1.7581111892LOct 1 · 10:55G. Poliniewicz1.90681191P. Jendrzejewski1.8011117113WOct 1 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz1.83129119113K. Kapik1.88101141172LSep 30 · 13:50K. Kolodziej2.03119911123G. Poliniewicz1.71911114102LSep 30 · 13:00M. Olbrycht1.801111123G. Poliniewicz1.9067100WSep 30 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz1.951211410113L. Jarocki1.75108111292
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