TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Poliniewicz vs Krzysztof Kapik 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210911114911117
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:39 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Poliniewicz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
1210911114911117
H2H Grzegorz Poliniewicz 39–42 Krzysztof Kapik Grzegorz Poliniewicz has won 39 of their 81 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:3954.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.83
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.83 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Poliniewicz
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
39-42 in 81
Kapik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Poliniewicz 1703 vs Kapik 1659
Poliniewicz
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Poliniewicz 40% vs Kapik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Poliniewicz 50% vs Kapik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Poliniewicz -2 · Kapik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Poliniewicz) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPoliniewicz 1.83 / Kapik 1.88
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Poliniewicz)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13223168
Poliniewicz1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite71% won 317 of 449
Up 2–0, closes it95% 145 of 152
Up 1–0, closes it83% 236 of 283
Kapik1.88
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 170 of 385
Down 0–1, comes back24% 50 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePoliniewicz3wins
AwayKapik7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKapik leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePoliniewicz33.3%2 of 6
AwayKapik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Poliniewicz6Kapik4n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S2Poliniewicz4Kapik6n = 10Kapik took 6 of 10
S3Poliniewicz6Kapik4n = 10Poliniewicz took 6 of 10
S4Poliniewicz3Kapik6n = 9Kapik took 6 of 9
S5Poliniewicz2Kapik5n = 7Kapik took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPoliniewiczKapikP − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.347.5−2.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPoliniewiczKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime1227 / 2106 vs 1109 / 208458.3%53.2%1227 / 2106 vs 1109 / 2084Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
PoliniewiczPoliniewicz 1.83/Kapik 1.88
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Poliniewicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Poliniewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 28 · 07:15G. Poliniewicz346101171K. Kapik3711123113
LSep 25 · 10:05G. Poliniewicz50111191182K. Kapik53139119113
LSep 25 · 05:35G. Poliniewicz511211117102K. Kapik54148911123
WSep 24 · 10:55G. Poliniewicz371114123K. Kapik30812100
LSep 23 · 03:20G. Poliniewicz4811811992K. Kapik50911811113
LSep 21 · 09:45G. Poliniewicz48131711162K. Kapik611119119113
LSep 17 · 09:20G. Poliniewicz351141191K. Kapik4381113113
WSep 16 · 13:50G. Poliniewicz521111910113K. Kapik4998111292
LSep 16 · 08:30G. Poliniewicz4911913972K. Kapik528111111113
WSep 14 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz49771111133K. Kapik46111176112
G. Poliniewicz10
LSep 30 · 13:50K. Kolodziej2.03119911123G. Poliniewicz1.71911114102LSep 30 · 13:00M. Olbrycht1.801111123G. Poliniewicz1.9067100WSep 30 · 12:10G. Poliniewicz1.951211410113L. Jarocki1.75108111292LSep 30 · 10:30G. Poliniewicz2.1011931192A. Spychala1.67711119113WSep 30 · 09:45M. Rutkowski1.98813111282G. Poliniewicz1.731115310113WSep 30 · 08:30G. Poliniewicz1.8031111143K. Wisniewski1.851168121WSep 30 · 06:50G. Poliniewicz1.9111117113M. Olbrycht1.80971181LSep 30 · 05:35G. Poliniewicz2.20691381L. Jarocki1.57111111113WSep 30 · 04:00G. Poliniewicz2.10911114113A. Spychala1.6611941192LSep 30 · 03:00G. Poliniewicz2.606101141J. Kuzmicz1.4411125113
K. Kapik10
WOct 1 · 10:30K. Kapik1.5011126113M. Kolek2.506101171WOct 1 · 08:30M. Olbrycht2.0011681172K. Kapik1.70811118113LOct 1 · 07:15K. Kapik1.65115129122M. Kolek2.052111011143WOct 1 · 06:00P. Jendrzejewski1.83114711152K. Kapik1.88711114173LOct 1 · 04:50J. Kwapis1.6311911113K. Kapik2.16511691LOct 1 · 03:20K. Wisniewski1.90141115113K. Kapik1.751671371LSep 28 · 13:50M. Rutkowski2.0011101014113K. Kapik1.73512121282WSep 28 · 13:00M. Sklensky2.325119131K. Kapik1.5511311153LSep 28 · 12:10K. Kapik1.459101271D. Kostal2.50111210113WSep 28 · 10:30K. Kapik3.0561111113K. Wloczko1.32117381
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