TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kuzmicz vs Dawid Michna 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11712109111012711
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:37 and never touched: 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timeDawid Michna to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kuzmicz above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 100 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Dawid Michna at 60.4%
100 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kuzmicz 4–3 Dawid Michna Dawid Michna has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 22h before this match
Kuzmicz beat Michna 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3760.4%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.8pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Michna
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmicz 1789 vs Michna 1836
Michna
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmicz 40% vs Michna 20%
Kuzmicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmicz 40% vs Michna 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmicz -1 · Michna +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Michna) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmicz 2.375 / Michna 1.533
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Michna)-4.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13227510
Kuzmicz2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 128 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back33% 41 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47
Michna1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 69 of 109
Up 2–0, closes it100% 32 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it79% 54 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKuzmicz4wins
AwayMichna3wins
Kuzmicz leads 4–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmicz66.7%4 of 6
AwayMichnan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmicz6Michna1n = 7Kuzmicz took 6 of 7
S2Kuzmicz4Michna3n = 7Kuzmicz took 4 of 7
S3Kuzmicz2Michna5n = 7Michna took 5 of 7
S4Kuzmicz2Michna2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKuzmiczMichnaK − MBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match35.333.4+1.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmiczMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime734 / 1278 vs 499 / 92257.4%54.1%734 / 1278 vs 499 / 922Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MichnaKuzmicz 2.38/Michna 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.4%
Michna · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WOct 1 · 08:05J. Kuzmicz371511113D. Michna2413920
LSep 21 · 13:20J. Kuzmicz33116791D. Michna3961111113
LSep 21 · 05:15J. Kuzmicz2211560D. Michna351311113
WMar 10 · 05:15J. Kuzmicz4011117113D. Michna36891181
WMar 4 · 08:55J. Kuzmicz4111118113D. Michna27521191
WFeb 20 · 21:10J. Kuzmicz341112113D. Michna2151060
LFeb 8 · 20:05J. Kuzmicz401131971D. Michna5291121113
J. Kuzmicz10
LOct 2 · 04:10J. Kuzmicz1.538770J. Kwapis2.381111113WOct 2 · 03:00J. Kuzmicz1.731111113K. Wloczko2.009680WOct 1 · 08:05D. Michna1.7313920J. Kuzmicz2.001511113LOct 1 · 07:20A. Grela1.441111113J. Kuzmicz2.634380LOct 1 · 05:15K. Wloczko1.83111112153J. Kuzmicz1.838914131LOct 1 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.731111133J. Kuzmicz2.0087110LOct 1 · 03:00L. Jarocki2.1011711113J. Kuzmicz1.67611931WSep 30 · 14:35A. Grela1.5011712482J. Kuzmicz2.504111011113LSep 30 · 13:20J. Kuzmicz1.6711512752M. Miastowski2.109111011113WSep 30 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.7311871182J. Kuzmicz2.00511115113
D. Michna10
WOct 2 · 04:55D. Michna1.3613613113G. Poliniewicz3.0011111191LOct 2 · 03:45D. Michna2.00137981M. Jadczyk1.73111111113LOct 1 · 14:35D. Michna1.8311991142K. Wloczko1.83511116113LOct 1 · 12:55D. Michna2.00115101192A. Grela1.73911120113LOct 1 · 11:40D. Michna1.40661191M. Rutkowski2.7511115113WOct 1 · 10:00D. Michna1.50111011113L. Jarocki2.50312621LOct 1 · 09:00D. Michna1.8311911642K. Kolodziej1.83911811113LOct 1 · 08:05D. Michna1.7313920J. Kuzmicz2.001511113WOct 1 · 06:30K. Wloczko1.83121165122D. Michna1.831041111143LOct 1 · 05:40L. Jarocki2.38911115113D. Michna1.5311841182
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