TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Krystian Kolodziej vs Daniel Kostal 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151210114––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:27 and never touched: 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeKrystian Kolodziej to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKrystian Kolodziej above · Daniel Kostal below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 53 set 3, 11-4 · our read held Krystian Kolodziej at 69.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Kolodziej 1–0 Daniel Kostal Daniel Kostal has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2769.1%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.3pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kolodziej
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kolodziej 1773 vs Kostal 1664
Kolodziej
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolodziej 40% vs Kostal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolodziej 50% vs Kostal 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolodziej -1 · Kostal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Kolodziej) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolodziej 1.40 / Kostal 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Kolodziej)-2.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13238354
Kolodziej1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite75% won 428 of 572
Up 2–0, closes it97% 272 of 281
Up 1–0, closes it87% 354 of 408
Kostal2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 24 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKolodziej1wins
AwayKostal0wins
Kolodziej leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKolodziejKostalKolodziej − KostalBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match44.032.0+12.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolodziejKostalBasisWin rate · lifetime1269 / 1905 vs 39 / 9366.6%41.9%1269 / 1905 vs 39 / 93Avg sets wonper match2.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.435.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejKolodziej 1.40/Kostal 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 28 · 10:55K. Kolodziej44111111113D. Kostal32413961
K. Kolodziej10
LOct 4 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.731012111162K. Kapik2.00121458113LOct 4 · 06:55K. Kolodziej2.380M. Jadczyk1.533LOct 4 · 05:40K. Kolodziej3.40551121P. David1.3011118113WOct 4 · 04:10K. Kolodziej1.281111113K. Szurlej3.507420LOct 4 · 03:00K. Kolodziej1.4099111172K. Wisniewski2.75111177113LOct 2 · 15:25K. Kolodziej1.6181381172K. Wloczko2.201111117113WOct 2 · 13:45J. Kuzmicz1.73811111162K. Kolodziej2.00111386113LOct 2 · 12:55D. Michna1.6711168123K. Kolodziej2.1091411101WOct 2 · 12:05K. Kolodziej1.531112113J. Kwapis2.3831070WOct 2 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.50711118113M. Jadczyk1.5011791192
D. Kostal10
WOct 4 · 07:20D. Kostal1.6191511113K. Wisniewski2.201113761LOct 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.221011511113D. Kostal4.0012911832LOct 4 · 04:55P. David1.201111113D. Kostal4.333770WOct 4 · 03:25K. Szurlej2.205960D. Kostal1.611111113LSep 28 · 14:35M. Sklensky1.30121111113D. Kostal3.20147891LSep 28 · 13:25D. Kostal3.60311231K. Wloczko1.2211311113WSep 28 · 12:10K. Kapik1.459101271D. Kostal2.50111210113LSep 28 · 10:55K. Kolodziej1.64111111113D. Kostal2.13413961WSep 28 · 09:20M. Rutkowski2.12112951D. Kostal1.6571111113WSep 28 · 07:40J. Kuzmicz1.301191341D. Kostal3.1091115113
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