TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Jadczyk vs Daniel Kostal 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012119511118113
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:03 and never touched: 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Daniel Kostal below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 91 set 5, 11-3 · our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 79.4%
91 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 5–0 Daniel Kostal Daniel Kostal has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0379.4%Our read81.8%to break even at 1.222
short by 2.4pp81.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.222 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1881 vs Kostal 1652
Jadczyk
Correct
both rated, 229 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 60% vs Kostal 40%
Jadczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 50% vs Kostal 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk +1 · Kostal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Jadczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostal form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.222 / Kostal 4.00
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Jadczyk)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13238135
Jadczyk1.22
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 403 of 644
Up 2–0, closes it95% 204 of 214
Up 1–0, closes it81% 315 of 387
Kostal4.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 24 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeJadczyk5wins
AwayKostal0wins
3 of 5 to a deciderJadczyk leads 5–0, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczykn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKostal0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk1Kostal4n = 5Kostal took 4 of 5
S2Jadczyk5Kostal0n = 5Jadczyk took 5 of 5
S3Jadczyk3Kostal2n = 5Jadczyk took 3 of 5
S4Jadczyk3Kostal1n = 4Jadczyk took 3 of 4
S5Jadczyk3Kostal0n = 3Jadczyk took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricJadczykKostalJ − KBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match45.234.6+10.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykKostalBasisWin rate · lifetime981 / 1687 vs 38 / 9258.2%41.3%981 / 1687 vs 38 / 92Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.035.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJadczyk 1.22/Kostal 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk481011511113D. Kostal4312911832
WSep 19 · 12:55M. Jadczyk549111112113D. Kostal4311751462
WSep 19 · 03:45M. Jadczyk331111113D. Kostal163940
WJul 11 · 09:40M. Jadczyk50711714113D. Kostal46114111282
WJul 11 · 06:05M. Jadczyk4181111113D. Kostal25115451
M. Jadczyk10
WOct 4 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.361111113K. Wisniewski3.006540LOct 4 · 03:45P. David1.7311711113M. Jadczyk2.00811891WOct 2 · 15:00J. Kuzmicz2.003550M. Jadczyk1.731111113LOct 2 · 14:10D. Michna1.8011811113M. Jadczyk1.91911951WOct 2 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.30591511113J. Kwapis3.40111113862LOct 2 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.50311661K. Wloczko2.5011911113LOct 2 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.50711118113M. Jadczyk1.5011791192LOct 2 · 07:45J. Kwapis3.00128611113M. Jadczyk1.36101111652WOct 2 · 06:55J. Kuzmicz1.839860M. Jadczyk1.831111113WOct 2 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.251111113G. Poliniewicz3.756980
D. Kostal10
LOct 4 · 04:55P. David1.201111113D. Kostal4.333770WOct 4 · 03:25K. Szurlej2.205960D. Kostal1.611111113LSep 28 · 14:35M. Sklensky1.30121111113D. Kostal3.20147891LSep 28 · 13:25D. Kostal3.60311231K. Wloczko1.2211311113WSep 28 · 12:10K. Kapik1.459101271D. Kostal2.50111210113LSep 28 · 10:55K. Kolodziej1.64111111113D. Kostal2.13413961WSep 28 · 09:20M. Rutkowski2.12112951D. Kostal1.6571111113WSep 28 · 07:40J. Kuzmicz1.301191341D. Kostal3.1091115113LSep 28 · 06:50M. Rutkowski1.751111113D. Kostal1.954880LSep 28 · 06:00D. Kostal2.053540K. Kapik1.691111113
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