TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jakub Kuzmicz vs Marcin Jadczyk 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311511511––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kuzmicz above · Marcin Jadczyk below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 46 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 54.9%
46 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kuzmicz 12–11 Marcin Jadczyk Marcin Jadczyk has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Jadczyk beat Kuzmicz 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5954.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzmicz 1785 vs Jadczyk 1871
Jadczyk
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzmicz 60% vs Jadczyk 20%
Kuzmicz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzmicz 50% vs Jadczyk 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzmicz -1 · Jadczyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Jadczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jadczyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzmicz 2.00 / Jadczyk 1.727
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Jadczyk)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13227482
Kuzmicz2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 128 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back33% 41 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47
Jadczyk1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 404 of 644
Up 2–0, closes it95% 206 of 216
Up 1–0, closes it82% 317 of 388
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzmicz6wins
AwayJadczyk4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKuzmicz leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzmiczn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJadczyk50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzmicz2Jadczyk8n = 10Jadczyk took 8 of 10
S2Kuzmicz5Jadczyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Kuzmicz6Jadczyk4n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S4Kuzmicz4Jadczyk3n = 7Kuzmicz took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzmiczJadczykK − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.436.5−1.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzmiczJadczykBasisWin rate · lifetime737 / 1285 vs 980 / 168657.4%58.1%737 / 1285 vs 980 / 1686Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykKuzmicz 2.00/Jadczyk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 2 · 06:55J. Kuzmicz239860M. Jadczyk331111113
LOct 1 · 04:30J. Kuzmicz2687110M. Jadczyk351111133
WSep 30 · 12:05J. Kuzmicz43511115113M. Jadczyk4511871182
WSep 25 · 13:20J. Kuzmicz4011711113M. Jadczyk28811451
LSep 25 · 03:45J. Kuzmicz33671191M. Jadczyk3811115113
WSep 23 · 04:30J. Kuzmicz4291111113M. Jadczyk36118891
LSep 21 · 10:25J. Kuzmicz239770M. Jadczyk331111113
WSep 21 · 04:30J. Kuzmicz4181111113M. Jadczyk33119671
WSep 16 · 10:25J. Kuzmicz44411126113M. Jadczyk46117101172
WSep 16 · 04:30J. Kuzmicz3912115113M. Jadczyk381091181
J. Kuzmicz10
LOct 2 · 13:45J. Kuzmicz1.73811111162K. Kolodziej2.00111386113WOct 2 · 12:30J. Kuzmicz2.1011611113K. Wloczko1.67911871WOct 2 · 11:15D. Michna1.53115771J. Kuzmicz2.3851111113WOct 2 · 10:25J. Kuzmicz1.571111113J. Kwapis2.257590LOct 2 · 08:30J. Kuzmicz1.7311581192G. Poliniewicz2.00911113113LOct 2 · 06:55J. Kuzmicz1.839860M. Jadczyk1.831111113LOct 2 · 05:40J. Kuzmicz2.38111291072D. Michna1.537101112113LOct 2 · 04:10J. Kuzmicz1.538770J. Kwapis2.381111113WOct 2 · 03:00J. Kuzmicz1.731111113K. Wloczko2.009680WOct 1 · 08:05D. Michna1.7313920J. Kuzmicz2.001511113
M. Jadczyk10
LOct 2 · 14:10D. Michna1.8011811113M. Jadczyk1.91911951WOct 2 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.30591511113J. Kwapis3.40111113862LOct 2 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.50311661K. Wloczko2.5011911113LOct 2 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.50711118113M. Jadczyk1.5011791192LOct 2 · 07:45J. Kwapis3.00128611113M. Jadczyk1.36101111652WOct 2 · 06:55J. Kuzmicz1.839860M. Jadczyk1.831111113WOct 2 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.251111113G. Poliniewicz3.756980WOct 2 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.501111163K. Wloczko2.5029140WOct 2 · 03:45D. Michna2.00137981M. Jadczyk1.73111111113WOct 1 · 07:45K. Wloczko2.389340M. Jadczyk1.531111113
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