TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Daniel Kostal vs Krzysztof Kapik 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111171210114––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:48 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniel Kostal above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 8-1
Point 67 set 4, 8-1 · our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 54.0%
67 points drawn · the score is 6 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Daniel Kostal 1–2 Krzysztof Kapik Daniel Kostal has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4854.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kapik
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostal 1649 vs Kapik 1695
Kapik
Wrong
both rated, 46 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostal 20% vs Kapik 80%
Kapik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostal 30% vs Kapik 60%
Kapik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostal -2 · Kapik +3
Kapik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kapik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostal 2.00 / Kapik 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kapik)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13238464
Kostal2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 24 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Kapik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 217 of 356
Up 2–0, closes it95% 103 of 108
Up 1–0, closes it77% 146 of 190
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKostal1wins
AwayKapik2wins
Kapik leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostal1Kapik2n = 3Kapik took 2 of 3
S2Kostal2Kapik1n = 3Kostal took 2 of 3
S3Kostal0Kapik3n = 3Kapik took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKostalKapikKostal − KapikBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match32.338.7−6.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostalKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime39 / 95 vs 1108 / 208341.1%53.2%39 / 95 vs 1108 / 2083Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKostal 2.00/Kapik 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kostal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 28 · 12:10D. Kostal44111210113K. Kapik389101271
LSep 28 · 06:00D. Kostal123540K. Kapik331111113
LSep 18 · 04:25D. Kostal419116151K. Kapik4511611173
D. Kostal10
LOct 4 · 11:40P. David1.2011118133D. Kostal4.339111111LOct 4 · 09:40D. Kostal4.001181281M. Jadczyk1.2241114113LOct 4 · 08:30K. Kolodziej1.401112113D. Kostal2.7551040WOct 4 · 07:20D. Kostal1.6191511113K. Wisniewski2.201113761LOct 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.221011511113D. Kostal4.0012911832LOct 4 · 04:55P. David1.201111113D. Kostal4.333770WOct 4 · 03:25K. Szurlej2.205960D. Kostal1.611111113LSep 28 · 14:35M. Sklensky1.30121111113D. Kostal3.20147891LSep 28 · 13:25D. Kostal3.60311231K. Wloczko1.2211311113WSep 28 · 12:10K. Kapik1.459101271D. Kostal2.50111210113
K. Kapik10
LOct 4 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.251211113K. Kapik3.7510320WOct 4 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.731012111162K. Kapik2.00121458113WOct 2 · 14:15K. Kapik2.00101111123K. Wisniewski1.701287101WOct 2 · 12:35P. Jendrzejewski1.9068100K. Kapik1.801111123LOct 2 · 11:45D. Kosmal2.001112113K. Kapik1.7071040WOct 2 · 10:55K. Kapik1.951112113M. Rutkowski1.7771010WOct 2 · 09:45K. Kapik1.881161111113G. Poliniewicz1.8381181392LOct 2 · 08:30P. Jendrzejewski1.8011913153K. Kapik1.8541111131WOct 2 · 07:15K. Kapik1.551111113M. Kolek2.258960LSep 28 · 12:10K. Kapik1.459101271D. Kostal2.50111210113
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