TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Petr David vs Daniel Kostal 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191118111311––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:39 and never touched: 81.1% is still 81.1%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
81.1%
81.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr David above · Daniel Kostal below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 75 set 4, 13-11 · our read held Petr David at 81.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 1–0 Daniel Kostal Daniel Kostal has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3981.1%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
short by 2.2pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
David
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
David 1952 vs Kostal 1663
David
Correct
both rated, 289 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 100% vs Kostal 40%
David
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 80% vs Kostal 40%
David
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
David +7 · Kostal +1
David
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% · Strong (leans David) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostal form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 1.20 / Kostal 4.333
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (David)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13242070
David1.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite65% won 231 of 354
Up 2–0, closes it95% 116 of 122
Up 1–0, closes it81% 171 of 212
Kostal4.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 24 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeDavid1wins
AwayKostal0wins
David leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricDavidKostalD − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.017.0+16.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidKostalBasisWin rate · lifetime658 / 995 vs 40 / 9666.1%41.7%658 / 995 vs 40 / 96Avg sets wonper match2.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match40.035.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DavidDavid 1.20/Kostal 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.1%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 4 · 04:55P. David331111113D. Kostal173770
P. David10
WOct 4 · 10:00P. David1.331211119113K. Kolodziej3.2514791162WOct 4 · 09:00P. David1.201111113K. Wisniewski4.336470WOct 4 · 08:05P. David1.20111011113K. Wisniewski4.33412951WOct 4 · 06:30K. Szurlej6.00137100P. David1.111511123WOct 4 · 05:40K. Kolodziej3.40551121P. David1.3011118113WOct 4 · 04:55P. David1.201111113D. Kostal4.333770WOct 4 · 03:45P. David1.7311711113M. Jadczyk2.00811891LSep 30 · 14:10P. David1.6111412882M. Miastowski2.205111011113LSep 30 · 12:30A. Wiecek2.201071111113P. David1.6112119492WSep 30 · 11:40A. Grela2.50871171P. David1.5011117113
D. Kostal10
WOct 4 · 10:50D. Kostal2.0071112113K. Kapik1.731171041LOct 4 · 09:40D. Kostal4.001181281M. Jadczyk1.2241114113LOct 4 · 08:30K. Kolodziej1.401112113D. Kostal2.7551040WOct 4 · 07:20D. Kostal1.6191511113K. Wisniewski2.201113761LOct 4 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.221011511113D. Kostal4.0012911832LOct 4 · 04:55P. David1.201111113D. Kostal4.333770WOct 4 · 03:25K. Szurlej2.205960D. Kostal1.611111113LSep 28 · 14:35M. Sklensky1.30121111113D. Kostal3.20147891LSep 28 · 13:25D. Kostal3.60311231K. Wloczko1.2211311113WSep 28 · 12:10K. Kapik1.459101271D. Kostal2.50111210113
Upcoming Matches
P. David
Oct 4 · 12:55P. David1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Oct 4 · 14:35P. David1.17K. Kapik4.50—Oct 5 · 03:00P. David1.30K. Wloczko3.40—Oct 5 · 04:10P. David1.67J. Kosowski2.10—Oct 5 · 06:55P. David1.91M. Jadczyk1.80—Oct 5 · 08:30P. David1.57A. Wiecek2.25—Oct 5 · 09:20P. David1.67J. Kosowski2.10—Oct 5 · 10:00P. David1.61G. Felkel2.20—Oct 5 · 11:15P. David1.50J. Kuzmicz2.50—Oct 5 · 12:30P. David1.40K. Kolodziej2.75—
D. Kostal
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