TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Petr David vs Karol Wisniewski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116114117––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:48 and never touched: 84.6% is still 84.6%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
84.6%
84.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr David above · Karol Wisniewski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 50 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Petr David at 84.6%
50 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 20–1 Karol Wisniewski Karol Wisniewski has won 1 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
David beat Wisniewski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:4884.6%Our read83.3%to break even at 1.20
clears by 1.3pp83.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.20 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
David
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-1 in 21
David
Correct
gap of 19 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1946 vs Wisniewski 1639
David
Correct
both rated, 308 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 100% vs Wisniewski 40%
David
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 70% vs Wisniewski 50%
David
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
David +5 · Wisniewski -2
David
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% · Strong (leans David) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wisniewski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 1.20 / Wisniewski 4.333
Signal prob.85% / 15%
Edge (David)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13239930
David1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite65% won 231 of 354
Up 2–0, closes it95% 116 of 122
Up 1–0, closes it81% 171 of 212
Wisniewski4.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 208 of 541
Down 0–1, comes back20% 68 of 337
Down 0–2, comes back4% 8 of 201
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDavid10wins
AwayWisniewski0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDavid leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavid100%7 of 7
AwayWisniewski0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David7Wisniewski3n = 10David took 7 of 10
S2David9Wisniewski1n = 10David took 9 of 10
S3David8Wisniewski2n = 10David took 8 of 10
S4David5Wisniewski0n = 5David took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDavidWisniewskiD − WBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.528.6+9.9per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidWisniewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime658 / 995 vs 976 / 217666.1%44.9%658 / 995 vs 976 / 2176Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DavidDavid 1.20/Wisniewski 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.6%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 28 · 09:40P. David331111113K. Wisniewski177640
WApr 9 · 09:10P. David3851111113K. Wisniewski35117981
WFeb 22 · 14:40P. David44121110113K. Wisniewski371081271
WFeb 22 · 10:35P. David50812811113K. Wisniewski43111011382
WJan 30 · 09:35P. David4391112113K. Wisniewski361171081
WJan 29 · 16:35P. David4011711113K. Wisniewski30511591
WDec 11 · 09:00P. David371115113K. Wisniewski2551370
WDec 10 · 13:50P. David341112113K. Wisniewski2691070
WOct 19 · 09:10P. David331111113K. Wisniewski204790
WJul 14 · 18:15P. David331111113K. Wisniewski172780
P. David10
WOct 4 · 08:05P. David1.20111011113K. Wisniewski4.33412951WOct 4 · 06:30K. Szurlej6.00137100P. David1.111511123WOct 4 · 05:40K. Kolodziej3.40551121P. David1.3011118113WOct 4 · 04:55P. David1.201111113D. Kostal4.333770WOct 4 · 03:45P. David1.7311711113M. Jadczyk2.00811891LSep 30 · 14:10P. David1.6111412882M. Miastowski2.205111011113LSep 30 · 12:30A. Wiecek2.201071111113P. David1.6112119492WSep 30 · 11:40A. Grela2.50871171P. David1.5011117113LSep 30 · 10:50P. David1.361291181J. Kuzmicz3.00101113113WSep 30 · 09:40P. David1.5781111113M. Jadczyk2.25116991
K. Wisniewski10
LOct 4 · 08:05P. David1.20111011113K. Wisniewski4.33412951LOct 4 · 07:20D. Kostal1.6191511113K. Wisniewski2.201113761WOct 4 · 05:15K. Szurlej1.735121141K. Wisniewski2.0011146113LOct 4 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.361111113K. Wisniewski3.006540WOct 4 · 03:00K. Kolodziej1.4099111172K. Wisniewski2.75111177113LOct 2 · 14:15K. Kapik2.00101111123K. Wisniewski1.701287101LOct 2 · 13:25M. Rutkowski1.8511611113K. Wisniewski1.85711681WOct 2 · 11:20P. Jendrzejewski1.657990K. Wisniewski2.051111113WOct 2 · 10:30G. Poliniewicz1.80111101292K. Wisniewski1.914111210113WOct 2 · 09:00D. Kosmal1.83981181K. Wisniewski1.8711116113
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