TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Kacper Szurlej vs Petr David 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
13157111012––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:23 and never touched: 84.4% is still 84.4%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
84.4%
84.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Szurlej above · Petr David below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 68 set 3, 10-12 · our read held Petr David at 84.4%
68 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Szurlej 0–2 Petr David Kacper Szurlej has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2384.4%Our read90.0%to break even at 1.111
short by 5.6pp90.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.111 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
David
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Szurlej 1581 vs David 1938
David
Correct
both rated, 356 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szurlej 40% vs David 60%
David
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szurlej 60% vs David 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szurlej -3 · David +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% · Strong (leans David) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- David form (60%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzurlej 6.00 / David 1.111
Signal prob.16% / 84%
Edge (David)-5.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13238153
Szurlej6.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 35 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back22% 11 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
David1.11
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite65% won 231 of 354
Up 2–0, closes it95% 116 of 122
Up 1–0, closes it81% 171 of 212
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSzurlej0wins
AwayDavid2wins
David leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away2
These 2 meetings
MetricSzurlejDavidS − DBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match22.035.5−13.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzurlejDavidBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 280 vs 657 / 99451.8%66.1%145 / 280 vs 657 / 994Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.340.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DavidSzurlej 6.00/David 1.11
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
84.4%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LOct 4 · 06:30K. Szurlej30137100P. David381511123
LJul 6 · 19:05K. Szurlej147520P. David331111113
K. Szurlej10
LOct 4 · 07:45K. Szurlej4.50713681M. Jadczyk1.17111111113LOct 4 · 05:15K. Szurlej1.735121141K. Wisniewski2.0011146113LOct 4 · 04:10K. Kolodziej1.281111113K. Szurlej3.507420LOct 4 · 03:25K. Szurlej2.205960D. Kostal1.611111113WAug 30 · 14:15A. Wos2.0091280K. Szurlej1.731114113WAug 30 · 13:25D. Solilo1.954390K. Szurlej1.751111113WAug 30 · 11:20P. Staniszewski3.35125771K. Szurlej1.27101111113LAug 30 · 10:30I. Dabrowski2.601781111123K. Szurlej1.41191159102WAug 30 · 09:00M. Zagajewski2.854570K. Szurlej1.351111113WAug 30 · 08:05M. Sinicki3.503840K. Szurlej1.261111113
P. David10
WOct 4 · 05:40K. Kolodziej3.40551121P. David1.3011118113WOct 4 · 04:55P. David1.201111113D. Kostal4.333770WOct 4 · 03:45P. David1.7311711113M. Jadczyk2.00811891LSep 30 · 14:10P. David1.6111412882M. Miastowski2.205111011113LSep 30 · 12:30A. Wiecek2.201071111113P. David1.6112119492WSep 30 · 11:40A. Grela2.50871171P. David1.5011117113LSep 30 · 10:50P. David1.361291181J. Kuzmicz3.00101113113WSep 30 · 09:40P. David1.5781111113M. Jadczyk2.25116991LSep 30 · 08:30A. Wiecek2.10811127113P. David1.67119101172WSep 30 · 07:20P. David1.538111410113M. Miastowski2.38114121272
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