TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Felkel vs Jakub Kosowski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117511911911––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:23 and never touched: 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Kosowski to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Jakub Kosowski @ 1.80 · Won
How it is goingGrzegorz Felkel above · Jakub Kosowski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Jakub Kosowski at 54.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Felkel 52–81 Jakub Kosowski Grzegorz Felkel has won 52 of their 133 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Kosowski beat Felkel 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:2354.7%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 0.9pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kosowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
52-81 in 133
Kosowski
Correct
gap of 29 in 133, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Felkel 1855 vs Kosowski 1976
Kosowski
Correct
both rated, 121 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Felkel 60% vs Kosowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Felkel 30% vs Kosowski 70%
Kosowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Felkel +2 · Kosowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Kosowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFelkel 1.909 / Kosowski 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Kosowski)-0.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13243127
Felkel1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 32 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Kosowski1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 272 of 416
Up 2–0, closes it95% 121 of 128
Up 1–0, closes it84% 209 of 248
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFelkel4wins
AwayKosowski6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKosowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFelkel50%3 of 6
AwayKosowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Felkel6Kosowski4n = 10Felkel took 6 of 10
S2Felkel4Kosowski6n = 10Kosowski took 6 of 10
S3Felkel7Kosowski3n = 10Felkel took 7 of 10
S4Felkel2Kosowski5n = 7Kosowski took 5 of 7
S5Felkel1Kosowski3n = 4Kosowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFelkelKosowskiF − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.438.9−0.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFelkelKosowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime676 / 1155 vs 725 / 122658.5%59.1%676 / 1155 vs 725 / 1226Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KosowskiFelkel 1.91/Kosowski 1.80
Hit
What we said
54.7%
Kosowski · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jakub Kosowski @ 1.80 · Won
What happened
1–3
Kosowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 06:30G. Felkel4577111192J. Kosowski43111119113
LSep 29 · 13:45G. Felkel50119111182J. Kosowski52911813113
LSep 29 · 08:30G. Felkel177730J. Kosowski331111113
LSep 28 · 10:50G. Felkel4211511962J. Kosowski49911711113
WSep 28 · 03:25G. Felkel341211113J. Kosowski2210930
WSep 22 · 10:00G. Felkel48117118113J. Kosowski3941161172
LSep 22 · 08:05G. Felkel33811861J. Kosowski4011711113
WSep 17 · 13:20G. Felkel43101111113J. Kosowski34129761
WSep 17 · 05:15G. Felkel391612113J. Kosowski33141090
LAug 19 · 09:20G. Felkel331113811J. Kosowski4471511113
G. Felkel10
WOct 5 · 12:55G. Felkel1.8011811113A. Wiecek1.91711791WOct 5 · 11:40G. Felkel1.5761111163K. Kolodziej2.251139141LOct 5 · 10:00G. Felkel2.20531191P. David1.6111119113LOct 5 · 09:00G. Felkel1.6189100J. Kuzmicz2.201111123WOct 5 · 08:05G. Felkel1.3611912113K. Wloczko3.007111091LOct 5 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.83111119113G. Felkel1.8377111192LOct 5 · 05:40P. David1.611011116113G. Felkel2.2012651162LOct 5 · 04:55G. Felkel1.73121161492A. Wiecek2.001491112113LOct 5 · 03:45G. Felkel1.8081211772M. Jadczyk1.911110211113LSep 29 · 13:45G. Felkel1.83119111182J. Kosowski1.83911813113
J. Kosowski10
LOct 5 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.36911111172J. Kuzmicz3.00111357113LOct 5 · 12:05A. Wiecek1.671112113J. Kosowski2.1091090WOct 5 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.636940J. Kosowski1.441111113WOct 5 · 09:20P. David1.8311101191J. Kosowski1.8313129113WOct 5 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.4213911113M. Jadczyk2.601111961WOct 5 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.83111119113G. Felkel1.8377111192WOct 5 · 05:15J. Kosowski1.501111113K. Wloczko2.505860LOct 5 · 04:10P. David1.6751111143J. Kosowski2.101166121WOct 5 · 03:25J. Kosowski2.00111011123A. Wiecek1.737125101WSep 29 · 13:45G. Felkel1.83119111182J. Kosowski1.83911813113
Upcoming Matches
G. Felkel
Oct 6 · 03:25G. Felkel1.91A. Wiecek1.80—Oct 6 · 04:55G. Felkel1.50J. Braun2.50—Oct 6 · 06:05G. Felkel1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Oct 6 · 07:20G. Felkel1.53M. Miastowski2.38—Oct 6 · 08:30G. Felkel1.83J. Kosowski1.83—Oct 6 · 09:40G. Felkel1.53M. Miastowski2.38—Oct 6 · 10:25G. Felkel1.91A. Wiecek1.80—Oct 6 · 12:05G. Felkel1.50J. Braun2.50—Oct 6 · 12:55G. Felkel1.50P. Chodorski2.50—Oct 6 · 13:45G. Felkel1.83J. Kosowski1.83—
J. Kosowski
Oct 6 · 03:00J. Kosowski1.61M. Miastowski2.20—Oct 6 · 04:10J. Kosowski1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Oct 6 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.61J. Braun2.20—Oct 6 · 08:30J. Kosowski1.83G. Felkel1.83—Oct 6 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.61J. Braun2.20—Oct 6 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.73P. Chodorski2.00—Oct 6 · 11:15J. Kosowski1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Oct 6 · 12:30J. Kosowski1.61M. Miastowski2.20—Oct 6 · 13:45J. Kosowski1.83G. Felkel1.83—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.