TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Grzegorz Felkel vs Adrian Wiecek 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117811117119––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:53 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingGrzegorz Felkel above · Adrian Wiecek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Adrian Wiecek at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Felkel 73–54 Adrian Wiecek Adrian Wiecek has won 54 of their 127 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 12:5354.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Felkel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
73-54 in 127
Felkel
Correct
gap of 19 in 127, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Felkel 1841 vs Wiecek 1900
Wiecek
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Felkel 40% vs Wiecek 60%
Wiecek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Felkel 20% vs Wiecek 60%
Wiecek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Felkel +1 · Wiecek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Wiecek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Felkel form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFelkel 1.80 / Wiecek 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Felkel)-9.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243117
Felkel1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 201 of 333
Up 2–0, closes it93% 112 of 121
Up 1–0, closes it78% 148 of 189
Wiecek1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 74 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back17% 17 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFelkel7wins
AwayWiecek3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFelkel leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFelkel71.4%5 of 7
AwayWiecek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Felkel7Wiecek3n = 10Felkel took 7 of 10
S2Felkel5Wiecek5n = 10split evenly
S3Felkel3Wiecek7n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S4Felkel7Wiecek3n = 10Felkel took 7 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFelkelWiecekF − WBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.138.5+1.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFelkelWiecekBasisWin rate · lifetime675 / 1154 vs 751 / 136858.5%54.9%675 / 1154 vs 751 / 1368Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FelkelFelkel 1.80/Wiecek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Felkel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 10:00G. Felkel3611113113A. Wiecek28721181
WSep 29 · 06:55G. Felkel46611711113A. Wiecek4011311692
LSep 22 · 13:45G. Felkel33117871A. Wiecek4291111113
WSep 22 · 07:20G. Felkel541161111153A. Wiecek53131188132
WSep 21 · 12:30G. Felkel4211128113A. Wiecek368101171
LSep 21 · 08:30G. Felkel351171071A. Wiecek4391112113
WSep 9 · 11:15G. Felkel4311711143A. Wiecek399117121
WSep 9 · 04:10G. Felkel4111811113A. Wiecek29911451
WAug 3 · 09:00G. Felkel4111118113A. Wiecek35881181
LAug 3 · 05:15G. Felkel30611581A. Wiecek4011711113
G. Felkel10
WOct 5 · 11:40G. Felkel1.5761111163K. Kolodziej2.251139141LOct 5 · 10:00G. Felkel2.20531191P. David1.6111119113LOct 5 · 09:00G. Felkel1.6189100J. Kuzmicz2.201111123WOct 5 · 08:05G. Felkel1.3611912113K. Wloczko3.007111091LOct 5 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.83111119113G. Felkel1.8377111192LOct 5 · 05:40P. David1.611011116113G. Felkel2.2012651162LOct 5 · 04:55G. Felkel1.73121161492A. Wiecek2.001491112113LOct 5 · 03:45G. Felkel1.8081211772M. Jadczyk1.911110211113LSep 29 · 13:45G. Felkel1.83119111182J. Kosowski1.83911813113LSep 29 · 12:30G. Felkel1.5011118101P. Chodorski2.5013811123
A. Wiecek10
WOct 5 · 12:05A. Wiecek1.671112113J. Kosowski2.1091090WOct 5 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.67111110113J. Kuzmicz2.10951291LOct 5 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.50111412113A. Wiecek1.504121481LOct 5 · 08:30P. David1.57111547113A. Wiecek2.25813111182WOct 5 · 07:20A. Wiecek1.36711116113K. Wloczko3.0011751182LOct 5 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.67111111113A. Wiecek2.10513991WOct 5 · 04:55G. Felkel1.73121161492A. Wiecek2.001491112113LOct 5 · 03:25J. Kosowski2.00111011123A. Wiecek1.737125101WSep 30 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.10791311113M. Jadczyk1.67111111442WSep 30 · 12:30A. Wiecek2.201071111113P. David1.6112119492
Upcoming Matches
G. Felkel
Oct 5 · 14:35G. Felkel1.91J. Kosowski1.80—Oct 6 · 03:25G. Felkel1.80A. Wiecek1.91—Oct 6 · 04:55G. Felkel1.50J. Braun2.50—Oct 6 · 06:05G. Felkel1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Oct 6 · 07:20G. Felkel1.53M. Miastowski2.38—Oct 6 · 08:30G. Felkel1.91J. Kosowski1.80—Oct 6 · 09:40G. Felkel1.53M. Miastowski2.38—Oct 6 · 10:25G. Felkel1.91A. Wiecek1.80—Oct 6 · 12:05G. Felkel1.50J. Braun2.50—Oct 6 · 12:55G. Felkel1.50P. Chodorski2.50—
A. Wiecek
Oct 6 · 03:25A. Wiecek1.91G. Felkel1.80—Oct 6 · 04:10A. Wiecek2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Oct 6 · 05:15A. Wiecek1.44M. Miastowski2.63—Oct 6 · 06:30A. Wiecek1.61J. Braun2.20—Oct 6 · 07:45A. Wiecek1.91M. Jadczyk1.80—Oct 6 · 09:00A. Wiecek1.61P. Chodorski2.20—Oct 6 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.80G. Felkel1.91—Oct 6 · 11:15A. Wiecek2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Oct 6 · 13:20A. Wiecek1.61J. Braun2.20—Oct 6 · 14:10A. Wiecek1.44M. Miastowski2.63—
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