TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Adrian Wiecek vs Jakub Kuzmicz 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191151012119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:22 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 78 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Adrian Wiecek at 56.6%
78 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 5–5 Jakub Kuzmicz Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:2256.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Wiecek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1871 vs Kuzmicz 1791
Wiecek
Correct
both rated, 80 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 40% vs Kuzmicz 60%
Kuzmicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 50% vs Kuzmicz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek -2 · Kuzmicz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Wiecek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmicz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.666 / Kuzmicz 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Wiecek)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243405
Wiecek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 165 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it92% 58 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it81% 117 of 145
Kuzmicz2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 125 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back33% 41 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek5wins
AwayKuzmicz5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek50%2 of 4
AwayKuzmicz50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek4Kuzmicz6n = 10Kuzmicz took 6 of 10
S2Wiecek5Kuzmicz5n = 10split evenly
S3Wiecek5Kuzmicz5n = 10split evenly
S4Wiecek7Kuzmicz3n = 10Wiecek took 7 of 10
S5Wiecek3Kuzmicz4n = 7Kuzmicz took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekKuzmiczW − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match48.544.4+4.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime749 / 1366 vs 738 / 128754.8%57.3%749 / 1366 vs 738 / 1287Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekWiecek 1.67/Kuzmicz 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 11:15A. Wiecek388121171J. Kuzmicz4111145113
LSep 21 · 07:20A. Wiecek47911111152J. Kuzmicz48118135113
LAug 24 · 11:40A. Wiecek50111091192J. Kuzmicz45712114113
WAug 24 · 05:40A. Wiecek541171411113J. Kuzmicz5191116782
LApr 6 · 11:35A. Wiecek501110811102J. Kuzmicz47812114123
WMar 30 · 16:20A. Wiecek4351311143J. Kuzmicz4011116121
WMar 11 · 15:00A. Wiecek43111011113J. Kuzmicz26812331
WMar 11 · 09:45A. Wiecek507111110113J. Kuzmicz4411691262
WFeb 23 · 21:10A. Wiecek539111111113J. Kuzmicz4211861342
LFeb 18 · 20:45A. Wiecek571011131582J. Kuzmicz601291513113
A. Wiecek10
LOct 5 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.50111412113A. Wiecek1.504121481LOct 5 · 08:30P. David1.57111547113A. Wiecek2.25813111182WOct 5 · 07:20A. Wiecek1.36711116113K. Wloczko3.0011751182LOct 5 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.67111111113A. Wiecek2.10513991WOct 5 · 04:55G. Felkel1.73121161492A. Wiecek2.001491112113LOct 5 · 03:25J. Kosowski2.00111011123A. Wiecek1.737125101WSep 30 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.10791311113M. Jadczyk1.67111111442WSep 30 · 12:30A. Wiecek2.201071111113P. David1.6112119492LSep 30 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.61129961M. Miastowski2.20101111113WSep 30 · 10:00A. Grela2.25111131292A. Wiecek1.571381110113
J. Kuzmicz10
WOct 5 · 09:00G. Felkel1.6189100J. Kuzmicz2.201111123LOct 2 · 15:00J. Kuzmicz2.003550M. Jadczyk1.731111113LOct 2 · 13:45J. Kuzmicz1.73811111162K. Kolodziej2.00111386113WOct 2 · 12:30J. Kuzmicz2.1011611113K. Wloczko1.67911871WOct 2 · 11:15D. Michna1.53115771J. Kuzmicz2.3851111113WOct 2 · 10:25J. Kuzmicz1.571111113J. Kwapis2.257590LOct 2 · 08:30J. Kuzmicz1.7311581192G. Poliniewicz2.00911113113LOct 2 · 06:55J. Kuzmicz1.839860M. Jadczyk1.831111113LOct 2 · 05:40J. Kuzmicz2.38111291072D. Michna1.537101112113LOct 2 · 04:10J. Kuzmicz1.538770J. Kwapis2.381111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Wiecek
J. Kuzmicz
Oct 5 · 13:20J. Kuzmicz3.00J. Kosowski1.36—Oct 5 · 14:10J. Kuzmicz1.73K. Kolodziej2.00—Oct 6 · 03:40J. Kuzmicz—P. Chodorski——Oct 6 · 04:50J. Kuzmicz—M. Malachowski——Oct 6 · 05:35J. Kuzmicz—M. Olbrycht——Oct 6 · 06:25J. Kuzmicz—K. Wloczko——Oct 6 · 08:05J. Kuzmicz—G. Poliniewicz——Oct 6 · 09:00J. Kuzmicz—K. Kapik——Oct 6 · 10:05J. Kuzmicz—M. Olbrycht——Oct 6 · 11:45J. Kuzmicz—M. Rutkowski——
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