TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Adrian Wiecek vs Jakub Kosowski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191210119––––
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:03 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Jakub Kosowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 62 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Adrian Wiecek at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 71–76 Jakub Kosowski Adrian Wiecek has won 71 of their 147 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:0354.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 6.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Wiecek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
71-76 in 147
Kosowski
Wrong
gap of 5 in 147, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1881 vs Kosowski 2012
Kosowski
Wrong
both rated, 132 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 40% vs Kosowski 100%
Kosowski
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 50% vs Kosowski 90%
Kosowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek +1 · Kosowski +5
Kosowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Wiecek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosowski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 1.666 / Kosowski 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wiecek)-6.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243535
Wiecek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 165 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it92% 58 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it81% 117 of 145
Kosowski2.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 33 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWiecek4wins
AwayKosowski6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKosowski leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWiecek100%4 of 4
AwayKosowski100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wiecek4Kosowski6n = 10Kosowski took 6 of 10
S2Wiecek8Kosowski2n = 10Wiecek took 8 of 10
S3Wiecek5Kosowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Wiecek3Kosowski6n = 9Kosowski took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWiecekKosowskiW − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.942.2−1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekKosowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime750 / 1367 vs 725 / 122454.9%59.2%750 / 1367 vs 725 / 1224Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WiecekWiecek 1.67/Kosowski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wiecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 5 · 03:25A. Wiecek347125101J. Kosowski44111011123
LSep 29 · 12:55A. Wiecek501011111172J. Kosowski53129813113
WSep 29 · 06:05A. Wiecek46111311113J. Kosowski38615891
LSep 22 · 12:55A. Wiecek4061212101J. Kosowski47111014123
LSep 22 · 04:55A. Wiecek29611391J. Kosowski3811511113
LSep 8 · 09:20A. Wiecek4010118111J. Kosowski4212611133
WSep 8 · 05:40A. Wiecek4211146113J. Kosowski397121191
WAug 25 · 13:45A. Wiecek351211123J. Kosowski29109100
WAug 25 · 08:30A. Wiecek45111211113J. Kosowski38814791
LAug 24 · 14:35A. Wiecek48815114102J. Kosowski541113711123
A. Wiecek10
LOct 5 · 12:55G. Felkel1.8011811113A. Wiecek1.91711791WOct 5 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.67111110113J. Kuzmicz2.10951291LOct 5 · 09:40K. Kolodziej2.50111412113A. Wiecek1.504121481LOct 5 · 08:30P. David1.57111547113A. Wiecek2.25813111182WOct 5 · 07:20A. Wiecek1.36711116113K. Wloczko3.0011751182LOct 5 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.67111111113A. Wiecek2.10513991WOct 5 · 04:55G. Felkel1.73121161492A. Wiecek2.001491112113LOct 5 · 03:25J. Kosowski2.00111011123A. Wiecek1.737125101WSep 30 · 13:45A. Wiecek2.10791311113M. Jadczyk1.67111111442WSep 30 · 12:30A. Wiecek2.201071111113P. David1.6112119492
J. Kosowski10
LOct 5 · 13:20J. Kosowski1.36911111172J. Kuzmicz3.00111357113WOct 5 · 10:50K. Kolodziej2.636940J. Kosowski1.441111113WOct 5 · 09:20P. David1.8311101191J. Kosowski1.8313129113WOct 5 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.4213911113M. Jadczyk2.601111961WOct 5 · 06:30J. Kosowski1.83111119113G. Felkel1.8377111192WOct 5 · 05:15J. Kosowski1.501111113K. Wloczko2.505860LOct 5 · 04:10P. David1.6751111143J. Kosowski2.101166121WOct 5 · 03:25J. Kosowski2.00111011123A. Wiecek1.737125101WSep 29 · 13:45G. Felkel1.83119111182J. Kosowski1.83911813113WSep 29 · 12:55A. Wiecek1.831011111172J. Kosowski1.83129813113
Upcoming Matches
A. Wiecek
Oct 6 · 03:25A. Wiecek1.91G. Felkel1.80—Oct 6 · 04:10A. Wiecek2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Oct 6 · 05:15A. Wiecek1.44M. Miastowski2.63—Oct 6 · 06:30A. Wiecek1.61J. Braun2.20—Oct 6 · 07:45A. Wiecek1.91M. Jadczyk1.80—Oct 6 · 09:00A. Wiecek1.61P. Chodorski2.20—Oct 6 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.80G. Felkel1.91—Oct 6 · 11:15A. Wiecek2.00J. Kosowski1.73—Oct 6 · 13:20A. Wiecek1.61J. Braun2.20—Oct 6 · 14:10A. Wiecek1.44M. Miastowski2.63—
J. Kosowski
Oct 5 · 14:35J. Kosowski1.80G. Felkel1.91—Oct 6 · 03:00J. Kosowski1.61M. Miastowski2.20—Oct 6 · 04:10J. Kosowski1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Oct 6 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.61J. Braun2.20—Oct 6 · 08:30J. Kosowski1.80G. Felkel1.91—Oct 6 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.61J. Braun2.20—Oct 6 · 10:00J. Kosowski1.73P. Chodorski2.00—Oct 6 · 11:15J. Kosowski1.73A. Wiecek2.00—Oct 6 · 12:30J. Kosowski1.61M. Miastowski2.20—Oct 6 · 13:45J. Kosowski1.80G. Felkel1.91—
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