TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Josef Braun vs Maksymilian Miastowski 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1416114119911119
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:25 and never touched: 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeMaksymilian Miastowski to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Maksymilian Miastowski @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingJosef Braun above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 105 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Maksymilian Miastowski at 56.5%
105 points played in total.
H2H Josef Braun 21–24 Maksymilian Miastowski Josef Braun has won 21 of their 45 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 07:2556.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 1.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Miastowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-24 in 45
Miastowski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Braun 1787 vs Miastowski 1887
Miastowski
Wrong
both rated, 101 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Braun 0% vs Miastowski 40%
Miastowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Braun 10% vs Miastowski 50%
Miastowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Braun -8 · Miastowski -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Miastowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBraun 2.00 / Miastowski 1.727
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Miastowski)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13248967
Braun2.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 77 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back24% 24 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Miastowski1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 108 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it96% 48 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it80% 75 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBraun4wins
AwayMiastowski6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMiastowski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBraun50%2 of 4
AwayMiastowski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Braun4Miastowski6n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S2Braun2Miastowski8n = 10Miastowski took 8 of 10
S3Braun5Miastowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Braun4Miastowski4n = 8split evenly
S5Braun3Miastowski2n = 5Braun took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBraunMiastowskiB − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.439.0−1.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBraunMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime500 / 965 vs 586 / 113051.8%51.9%500 / 965 vs 586 / 1130Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MiastowskiBraun 2.00/Miastowski 1.73
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Miastowski · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Maksymilian Miastowski @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Braun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 08:05J. Braun46581111113M. Miastowski4611119962
WAug 22 · 13:20J. Braun51119911113M. Miastowski4071111562
WAug 22 · 06:30J. Braun49711911113M. Miastowski4011811732
LAug 10 · 06:30J. Braun371071191M. Miastowski3712113113
LMay 27 · 10:20J. Braun29571341M. Miastowski44111111113
LMay 27 · 05:45J. Braun166550M. Miastowski331111113
LApr 8 · 11:30J. Braun114520M. Miastowski331111113
LApr 8 · 07:35J. Braun4311911932M. Miastowski39211411113
LMar 17 · 11:20J. Braun501111111072M. Miastowski46413612113
WMar 17 · 06:45J. Braun4211119113M. Miastowski32961161
J. Braun10
LOct 6 · 09:20J. Kosowski1.731113113J. Braun2.0051180LOct 6 · 06:30A. Wiecek1.73113127113J. Braun2.00911101162LOct 6 · 05:40J. Kosowski1.61111110113J. Braun2.20891221LOct 6 · 04:55J. Braun2.509811131G. Felkel1.5011119153LOct 6 · 03:45J. Braun2.00751161M. Jadczyk1.7311117113LSep 22 · 14:10K. Kolodziej2.251311113J. Braun1.5711670LSep 22 · 13:20D. Michna1.6711119113J. Braun2.10781171LSep 22 · 11:15G. Felkel1.361114113J. Braun3.0091260LSep 22 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.5781111113J. Braun2.25116691WSep 22 · 09:00J. Kosowski1.6161161192J. Braun2.20116114113
M. Miastowski10
LOct 6 · 09:40M. Miastowski2.258770G. Felkel1.571111113LOct 6 · 07:20G. Felkel1.5341211113M. Miastowski2.381110581LOct 6 · 05:15A. Wiecek1.449111411183M. Miastowski2.63118166162LOct 6 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.7341111123M. Miastowski2.001155101WOct 6 · 03:00J. Kosowski1.5317114572M. Miastowski2.381581111113WSep 30 · 14:10P. David1.6111412882M. Miastowski2.205111011113WSep 30 · 13:20J. Kuzmicz1.6711512752M. Miastowski2.109111011113WSep 30 · 11:15A. Wiecek1.61129961M. Miastowski2.20101111113LSep 30 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.531111113M. Miastowski2.387630LSep 30 · 09:00A. Grela1.6791111113M. Miastowski2.10119361
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