TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Maksymilian Miastowski vs Jakub Folwarski 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116811114811911
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:48 and never touched: 75.8% is still 75.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
75.8%
75.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksymilian Miastowski above · Jakub Folwarski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 90 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Jakub Folwarski at 75.8%
90 points played in total.
H2H Maksymilian Miastowski 3–5 Jakub Folwarski Maksymilian Miastowski has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4875.8%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 4.2pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Folwarski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Folwarski
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Miastowski 1845 vs Folwarski 2141
Folwarski
Correct
both rated, 296 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Miastowski 20% vs Folwarski 80%
Folwarski
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Miastowski 40% vs Folwarski 80%
Folwarski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Miastowski +1 · Folwarski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% · Strong (leans Folwarski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMiastowski 3.75 / Folwarski 1.25
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Folwarski)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13254178
Miastowski3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 77 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back30% 31 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 64
Folwarski1.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite78% won 163 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it90% 98 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMiastowski3wins
AwayFolwarski5wins
1 of 8 to a deciderFolwarski leads 5–3, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMiastowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayFolwarski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Miastowski3Folwarski5n = 8Folwarski took 5 of 8
S2Miastowski5Folwarski3n = 8Miastowski took 5 of 8
S3Miastowski4Folwarski4n = 8split evenly
S4Miastowski2Folwarski4n = 6Folwarski took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMiastowskiFolwarskiM − FBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match37.939.9−2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMiastowskiFolwarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime590 / 1142 vs 277 / 36451.7%76.1%590 / 1142 vs 277 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.12.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiMiastowski 3.75/Folwarski 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.8%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Folwarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 26 · 03:25M. Miastowski389101271J. Folwarski44111210113
LAug 8 · 09:20M. Miastowski341141271J. Folwarski45131110113
LAug 8 · 06:55M. Miastowski205780J. Folwarski331111113
WMay 21 · 10:25M. Miastowski331111113J. Folwarski238690
LMay 21 · 05:05M. Miastowski419111291J. Folwarski4511914113
LApr 4 · 07:40M. Miastowski4311145582J. Folwarski549121111113
WMar 18 · 13:00M. Miastowski51171111123J. Folwarski441996101
WApr 19 · 06:15M. Miastowski4312119113J. Folwarski311031171
M. Miastowski10
WOct 7 · 11:40A. Grela1.61119571M. Miastowski2.2061111113WOct 7 · 09:40M. Miastowski2.00871111113M. Jadczyk1.7311118662LOct 7 · 08:30P. Chodorski1.6111111123M. Miastowski2.208116101LOct 7 · 07:20M. Miastowski1.738990D. Michna2.001111113LOct 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.73911119113M. Miastowski2.0011651162LOct 7 · 04:55J. Stecyszyn2.5011119113M. Miastowski1.50781191WOct 7 · 03:25A. Grela1.7391111552M. Miastowski2.00117511113WOct 6 · 14:10M. Miastowski2.25111311113A. Wiecek1.577111381LOct 6 · 12:30J. Kosowski1.501210118123M. Miastowski2.501012911102LOct 6 · 11:40P. Chodorski2.1041111113M. Miastowski1.67119991
J. Folwarski10
WOct 7 · 09:20P. Chodorski3.75111138102J. Folwarski1.25451111123WSep 26 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4451111113M. Jadczyk2.63112991LSep 26 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.30742T. Spanik3.401143WSep 26 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.361111113K. Petas3.009650WSep 26 · 04:10G. Adamiak3.75710120J. Folwarski1.251112143WSep 26 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.28111210113M. Miastowski3.509101271WSep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4411115113T. Spanik2.63571181WSep 8 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.448111110123A. Wiecek2.63118912102LSep 8 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.61111197102P. David2.20651111123WSep 8 · 04:10J. Kosowski2.3881151182J. Folwarski1.53115119113
Upcoming Matches
M. Miastowski
J. Folwarski
Oct 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.50M. Jadczyk2.50—Oct 7 · 13:20J. Folwarski1.33D. Michna3.25—Oct 7 · 14:35J. Folwarski1.44A. Grela2.63—Oct 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.53P. David2.38—Oct 8 · 04:55J. Folwarski1.25J. Zandecki3.75—Oct 8 · 07:20J. Folwarski1.36D. Wederlich3.00—Oct 8 · 08:30J. Folwarski1.44A. Grela2.63—Oct 8 · 09:40J. Folwarski1.33D. Michna3.25—Oct 8 · 10:25J. Folwarski1.44D. Wederlich2.63—Oct 8 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.53P. David2.38—
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