TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Grela vs Maksymilian Miastowski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116911511711––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:34 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Maksymilian Miastowski below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Artur Grela at 58.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 32–31 Maksymilian Miastowski Maksymilian Miastowski has won 31 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:3458.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Grela
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
32-31 in 63
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1940 vs Miastowski 1841
Grela
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 60% vs Miastowski 20%
Grela
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 60% vs Miastowski 30%
Grela
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela -1 · Miastowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Grela) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Miastowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.615 / Miastowski 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Grela)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13254641
Grela1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 171 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it95% 62 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it76% 111 of 147
Miastowski2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 77 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back30% 31 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela6wins
AwayMiastowski4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGrela leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela75%3 of 4
AwayMiastowski50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela4Miastowski6n = 10Miastowski took 6 of 10
S2Grela7Miastowski3n = 10Grela took 7 of 10
S3Grela6Miastowski4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S4Grela7Miastowski2n = 9Grela took 7 of 9
S5Grela1Miastowski3n = 4Miastowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaMiastowskiG − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.537.0+5.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaMiastowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime639 / 1231 vs 590 / 114351.9%51.6%639 / 1231 vs 590 / 1143Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.61/Miastowski 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Miastowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 03:25A. Grela4191111552M. Miastowski45117511113
WSep 30 · 09:00A. Grela4291111113M. Miastowski29119361
LSep 30 · 08:05A. Grela344111181M. Miastowski4311813113
WSep 10 · 05:50A. Grela3711114113M. Miastowski28291161
WJun 9 · 10:25A. Grela4611717113M. Miastowski396111571
WJun 9 · 06:40A. Grela331111113M. Miastowski229850
WJun 8 · 12:25A. Grela48111511113M. Miastowski361313641
LJun 8 · 04:00A. Grela4411761192M. Miastowski42411115113
WMay 21 · 15:35A. Grela521011911113M. Miastowski4412811582
LMay 21 · 07:40A. Grela4899111182M. Miastowski42111118113
A. Grela10
LOct 7 · 10:00A. Grela1.801191141P. Chodorski1.9151113113WOct 7 · 09:00A. Grela1.9110111111113D. Michna1.8012913932LOct 7 · 07:45A. Grela2.10118941M. Jadczyk1.6781111113WOct 7 · 06:30A. Grela1.5071111113J. Stecyszyn2.50117971WOct 7 · 05:15A. Grela1.8317811113D. Michna1.831511791WOct 7 · 04:10P. Chodorski2.381110981A. Grela1.5391211113LOct 7 · 03:25A. Grela1.7391111552M. Miastowski2.00117511113WOct 1 · 13:45L. Jarocki3.4011650A. Grela1.301311113WOct 1 · 12:55D. Michna2.00115101192A. Grela1.73911120113LOct 1 · 12:05A. Grela1.50610100K. Wloczko2.501112123
M. Miastowski10
LOct 7 · 10:50M. Miastowski3.7511811892J. Folwarski1.25611411113WOct 7 · 09:40M. Miastowski2.00871111113M. Jadczyk1.7311118662LOct 7 · 08:30P. Chodorski1.6111111123M. Miastowski2.208116101LOct 7 · 07:20M. Miastowski1.738990D. Michna2.001111113LOct 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.73911119113M. Miastowski2.0011651162LOct 7 · 04:55J. Stecyszyn2.5011119113M. Miastowski1.50781191WOct 7 · 03:25A. Grela1.7391111552M. Miastowski2.00117511113WOct 6 · 14:10M. Miastowski2.25111311113A. Wiecek1.577111381LOct 6 · 12:30J. Kosowski1.501210118123M. Miastowski2.501012911102LOct 6 · 11:40P. Chodorski2.1041111113M. Miastowski1.67119991
Upcoming Matches
A. Grela
Oct 7 · 12:55A. Grela1.61M. Jadczyk2.20—Oct 7 · 14:35A. Grela2.63J. Folwarski1.44—Oct 8 · 03:00A. Grela2.20D. Wederlich1.61—Oct 8 · 04:10A. Grela2.20P. David1.61—Oct 8 · 05:40A. Grela1.83J. Zandecki1.83—Oct 8 · 06:55A. Grela1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Oct 8 · 08:30A. Grela2.63J. Folwarski1.44—Oct 8 · 09:20A. Grela2.20P. David1.61—Oct 8 · 10:00A. Grela1.83J. Zandecki1.83—Oct 8 · 11:15A. Grela2.20D. Wederlich1.61—
M. Miastowski
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