TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Grela vs Dawid Michna 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1715811117119––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:47 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Artur Grela @ 1.80 · Won
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 89 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Artur Grela at 54.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 31–30 Dawid Michna Dawid Michna has won 30 of their 61 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 03:4754.3%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.3pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Michna
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
31-30 in 61
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1939 vs Michna 1847
Grela
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 60% vs Michna 80%
Michna
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 80% vs Michna 60%
Grela
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +1 · Michna +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Grela) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.833 / Michna 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Grela)-0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13253470
Grela1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Michna1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela5wins
AwayMichna5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela66.7%2 of 3
AwayMichna57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela3Michna7n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S2Grela4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Grela6Michna4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S4Grela4Michna3n = 7Grela took 4 of 7
S5Grela3Michna2n = 5Grela took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaMichnaG − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.440.3−1.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime636 / 1226 vs 499 / 91951.9%54.3%636 / 1226 vs 499 / 919Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.83/Michna 1.83
Hit
What we said
54.3%
Grela · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Artur Grela @ 1.80 · Won
What happened
3–1
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 12:55A. Grela43911120113D. Michna46115101192
LOct 1 · 04:55A. Grela4779111192D. Michna41111117113
WSep 10 · 12:30A. Grela501171011113D. Michna4351112962
WSep 10 · 08:35A. Grela341211113D. Michna2810990
LSep 9 · 14:35A. Grela32711951D. Michna4211911113
WSep 9 · 03:45A. Grela50981111113D. Michna4411118952
LSep 4 · 12:55A. Grela3912611642D. Michna521011911113
LSep 4 · 04:55A. Grela228770D. Michna331111113
WAug 27 · 12:30A. Grela4691111153D. Michna411189131
LAug 27 · 04:10A. Grela217860D. Michna331111113
A. Grela10
WOct 7 · 06:30A. Grela1.5071111113J. Stecyszyn2.50117971WOct 7 · 04:10P. Chodorski2.381110981A. Grela1.5391211113LOct 7 · 03:25A. Grela1.7391111552M. Miastowski2.00117511113WOct 1 · 13:45L. Jarocki3.4011650A. Grela1.301311113WOct 1 · 12:55D. Michna2.00115101192A. Grela1.73911120113LOct 1 · 12:05A. Grela1.50610100K. Wloczko2.501112123WOct 1 · 10:25A. Grela1.4441111113K. Kolodziej2.63114461WOct 1 · 09:40M. Rutkowski5.505970A. Grela1.131111113WOct 1 · 08:30L. Jarocki2.6391060A. Grela1.441112113WOct 1 · 07:20A. Grela1.441111113J. Kuzmicz2.634380
D. Michna10
WOct 7 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.671131151D. Michna2.1091113113WOct 7 · 03:00P. Chodorski1.67411681D. Michna2.1011811113LOct 2 · 15:45D. Michna1.337520J. Kwapis3.251111113WOct 2 · 14:10D. Michna1.8011811113M. Jadczyk1.91911951WOct 2 · 12:55D. Michna1.6711168123K. Kolodziej2.1091411101LOct 2 · 11:15D. Michna1.53115771J. Kuzmicz2.3851111113WOct 2 · 10:00D. Michna1.61111111143K. Wloczko2.201358121LOct 2 · 08:05D. Michna1.6110513131K. Wloczko2.20121111153LOct 2 · 06:30J. Kwapis2.63811611113D. Michna1.4411811782LOct 1 · 12:55D. Michna2.00115101192A. Grela1.73911120113
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