TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Grela vs Piotr Chodorski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1159111113411––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:58 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Piotr Chodorski below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 75 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Artur Grela at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 21–17 Piotr Chodorski Piotr Chodorski has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Grela
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
21-17 in 38
Grela
Wrong
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1956 vs Chodorski 1835
Grela
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 80% vs Chodorski 40%
Grela
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 70% vs Chodorski 40%
Grela
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +1 · Chodorski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Grela) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chodorski form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.80 / Chodorski 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Grela)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13253940
Grela1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 171 of 253
Up 2–0, closes it95% 62 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it76% 111 of 147
Chodorski1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 8 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back33% 3 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela5wins
AwayChodorski5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela50%3 of 6
AwayChodorski50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela6Chodorski4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S2Grela6Chodorski4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S3Grela4Chodorski6n = 10Chodorski took 6 of 10
S4Grela3Chodorski3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaChodorskiG − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.136.9−0.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaChodorskiBasisWin rate · lifetime639 / 1230 vs 211 / 41252%51.2%639 / 1230 vs 211 / 412Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.80/Chodorski 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chodorski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 04:10A. Grela4391211113P. Chodorski381110981
LMar 24 · 12:10A. Grela27112591P. Chodorski4181111113
WMar 24 · 07:40A. Grela52161111143P. Chodorski4814913121
LMar 5 · 12:35A. Grela401578101P. Chodorski47131111123
WMar 5 · 09:25A. Grela331111113P. Chodorski205870
LFeb 24 · 15:50A. Grela2781180P. Chodorski351113113
WFeb 24 · 10:35A. Grela4181111113P. Chodorski38119991
LJan 20 · 11:00A. Grela196760P. Chodorski331111113
WJan 20 · 08:40A. Grela341211113P. Chodorski2310490
LJan 19 · 13:00A. Grela4511118962P. Chodorski46851111113
A. Grela10
WOct 7 · 09:00A. Grela1.9110111111113D. Michna1.8012913932LOct 7 · 07:45A. Grela2.10118941M. Jadczyk1.6781111113WOct 7 · 06:30A. Grela1.5071111113J. Stecyszyn2.50117971WOct 7 · 05:15A. Grela1.8317811113D. Michna1.831511791WOct 7 · 04:10P. Chodorski2.381110981A. Grela1.5391211113LOct 7 · 03:25A. Grela1.7391111552M. Miastowski2.00117511113WOct 1 · 13:45L. Jarocki3.4011650A. Grela1.301311113WOct 1 · 12:55D. Michna2.00115101192A. Grela1.73911120113LOct 1 · 12:05A. Grela1.50610100K. Wloczko2.501112123WOct 1 · 10:25A. Grela1.4441111113K. Kolodziej2.63114461
P. Chodorski10
LOct 7 · 09:20P. Chodorski3.75111138102J. Folwarski1.25451111123WOct 7 · 08:30P. Chodorski1.6111111123M. Miastowski2.208116101WOct 7 · 06:55P. Chodorski2.0011116113M. Jadczyk1.73661141LOct 7 · 05:40P. Chodorski1.3011671472J. Stecyszyn3.407111112113LOct 7 · 04:10P. Chodorski2.381110981A. Grela1.5391211113LOct 7 · 03:00P. Chodorski1.67411681D. Michna2.1011811113LOct 6 · 14:35P. Chodorski1.736850J. Braun2.001111113LOct 6 · 12:55P. Chodorski2.63119981G. Felkel1.4471111113WOct 6 · 11:40P. Chodorski2.1041111113M. Miastowski1.67119991WOct 6 · 10:00P. Chodorski2.00712511113J. Kosowski1.73111011672
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