TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Grela vs Jakub Folwarski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
2111210117114––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:30 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Jakub Folwarski below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 68 set 4, 11-4 · our read held Jakub Folwarski at 65.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 11–21 Jakub Folwarski Artur Grela has won 11 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3065.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Folwarski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-21 in 32
Folwarski
Wrong
gap of 10 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1936 vs Folwarski 2122
Folwarski
Wrong
both rated, 186 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 40% vs Folwarski 80%
Folwarski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 60% vs Folwarski 80%
Folwarski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +1 · Folwarski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Folwarski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Folwarski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 2.625 / Folwarski 1.444
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Folwarski)-3.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13254267
Grela2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 95 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back32% 39 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 42
Folwarski1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite78% won 163 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it90% 98 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela3wins
AwayFolwarski7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderFolwarski leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela40%2 of 5
AwayFolwarski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela5Folwarski5n = 10split evenly
S2Grela4Folwarski6n = 10Folwarski took 6 of 10
S3Grela6Folwarski4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S4Grela0Folwarski7n = 7Folwarski took 7 of 7
S5Grela2Folwarski3n = 5Folwarski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaFolwarskiG − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.640.4−1.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaFolwarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime640 / 1233 vs 276 / 36451.9%75.8%640 / 1233 vs 276 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.12.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiGrela 2.63/Folwarski 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 15 · 09:20A. Grela4811811992J. Folwarski40511211113
LJul 11 · 10:00A. Grela237970J. Folwarski331111113
LJul 11 · 05:40A. Grela2151060J. Folwarski341112113
WJul 4 · 10:00A. Grela50511119143J. Folwarski45114711122
LJul 4 · 05:40A. Grela50117111562J. Folwarski53711717113
LJun 4 · 04:00A. Grela31118481J. Folwarski4071111113
LMay 30 · 13:40A. Grela4391111662J. Folwarski47119511113
WMay 30 · 04:00A. Grela50118117133J. Folwarski41411411112
LMay 29 · 15:35A. Grela341311371J. Folwarski4515811113
WMay 21 · 11:10A. Grela361114113J. Folwarski2661280
A. Grela10
WOct 7 · 12:55A. Grela1.6111411113M. Jadczyk2.20311891LOct 7 · 11:40A. Grela1.61119571M. Miastowski2.2061111113LOct 7 · 10:00A. Grela1.801191141P. Chodorski1.9151113113WOct 7 · 09:00A. Grela1.9110111111113D. Michna1.8012913932LOct 7 · 07:45A. Grela2.10118941M. Jadczyk1.6781111113WOct 7 · 06:30A. Grela1.5071111113J. Stecyszyn2.50117971WOct 7 · 05:15A. Grela1.8317811113D. Michna1.831511791WOct 7 · 04:10P. Chodorski2.381110981A. Grela1.5391211113LOct 7 · 03:25A. Grela1.7391111552M. Miastowski2.00117511113WOct 1 · 13:45L. Jarocki3.4011650A. Grela1.301311113
J. Folwarski10
LOct 7 · 13:20J. Folwarski1.3311890D. Michna3.251311113WOct 7 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.50116461J. Folwarski1.5081111113WOct 7 · 10:50M. Miastowski3.7511811892J. Folwarski1.25611411113WOct 7 · 09:20P. Chodorski3.75111138102J. Folwarski1.25451111123WSep 26 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4451111113M. Jadczyk2.63112991LSep 26 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.30742T. Spanik3.401143WSep 26 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.361111113K. Petas3.009650WSep 26 · 04:10G. Adamiak3.75710120J. Folwarski1.251112143WSep 26 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.28111210113M. Miastowski3.509101271WSep 8 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4411115113T. Spanik2.63571181
Upcoming Matches
A. Grela
Oct 8 · 03:00A. Grela2.20D. Wederlich1.61—Oct 8 · 04:10A. Grela2.20P. David1.61—Oct 8 · 05:40A. Grela1.83J. Zandecki1.83—Oct 8 · 06:55A. Grela1.91M. Jadczyk1.80—Oct 8 · 08:30A. Grela3.00J. Folwarski1.36—Oct 8 · 09:20A. Grela2.20P. David1.61—Oct 8 · 10:00A. Grela1.83J. Zandecki1.83—Oct 8 · 11:15A. Grela2.20D. Wederlich1.61—Oct 8 · 12:30A. Grela1.83D. Michna1.83—Oct 8 · 13:45A. Grela3.00J. Folwarski1.36—
J. Folwarski
Oct 8 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.53P. David2.38—Oct 8 · 04:55J. Folwarski1.25J. Zandecki3.75—Oct 8 · 06:05J. Folwarski1.50M. Jadczyk2.50—Oct 8 · 07:20J. Folwarski1.36D. Wederlich3.00—Oct 8 · 08:30J. Folwarski1.36A. Grela3.00—Oct 8 · 09:40J. Folwarski1.30D. Michna3.40—Oct 8 · 10:25J. Folwarski1.36D. Wederlich3.00—Oct 8 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.53P. David2.38—Oct 8 · 12:55J. Folwarski1.25J. Zandecki3.75—Oct 8 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.36A. Grela3.00—
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