TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Petr David vs Jakub Folwarski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11510121181210––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:07 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr David above · Jakub Folwarski below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 79 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Jakub Folwarski at 61.2%
79 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 12–18 Jakub Folwarski Petr David has won 12 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:0761.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Folwarski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-18 in 30
Folwarski
Wrong
gap of 6 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1978 vs Folwarski 2081
Folwarski
Wrong
both rated, 103 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 40% vs Folwarski 60%
Folwarski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 60% vs Folwarski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
David -2 · Folwarski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Folwarski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 2.375 / Folwarski 1.533
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Folwarski)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13258796
David2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 05)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 14 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back25% 3 of 12
Folwarski1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite78% won 163 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it90% 98 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDavid3wins
AwayFolwarski7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFolwarski leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavid25%2 of 8
AwayFolwarskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David8Folwarski2n = 10David took 8 of 10
S2David2Folwarski8n = 10Folwarski took 8 of 10
S3David4Folwarski6n = 10Folwarski took 6 of 10
S4David3Folwarski7n = 10Folwarski took 7 of 10
S5David1Folwarski2n = 3Folwarski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDavidFolwarskiD − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.140.5−2.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidFolwarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime660 / 995 vs 275 / 36466.3%75.6%660 / 995 vs 275 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.42.6per matchAvg pointsper match40.040.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiDavid 2.38/Folwarski 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 03:25P. David44111011123J. Folwarski355128101
WSep 8 · 05:15P. David45651111123J. Folwarski48111197102
LSep 7 · 12:55P. David381297101J. Folwarski44101111123
LJun 4 · 08:25P. David42111155102J. Folwarski48771111123
LJun 3 · 12:50P. David34891161J. Folwarski3611113113
LJun 3 · 05:50P. David34118781J. Folwarski3851111113
LMay 20 · 10:25P. David391171291J. Folwarski4261114113
WMay 20 · 05:05P. David4111118113J. Folwarski29371181
LMar 19 · 06:05P. David3811511742J. Folwarski43711311113
LMar 18 · 16:35P. David26116451J. Folwarski4291111113
P. David10
LOct 8 · 04:10A. Grela2.2011811113P. David1.61711741LOct 5 · 13:45P. David1.6111611892A. Wiecek2.20611811113LOct 5 · 12:30P. David1.40117111172K. Kolodziej2.75131138113WOct 5 · 11:15P. David1.501114113J. Kuzmicz2.5061260WOct 5 · 10:00G. Felkel2.20531191P. David1.6111119113LOct 5 · 09:20P. David1.8311101191J. Kosowski1.8313129113WOct 5 · 08:30P. David1.57111547113A. Wiecek2.25813111182LOct 5 · 06:55P. David2.0010690M. Jadczyk1.731211113WOct 5 · 05:40P. David1.611011116113G. Felkel2.2012651162WOct 5 · 04:10P. David1.6751111143J. Kosowski2.101166121
J. Folwarski10
LOct 7 · 14:35A. Grela2.6321211113J. Folwarski1.441110741LOct 7 · 13:20J. Folwarski1.3311890D. Michna3.251311113WOct 7 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.50116461J. Folwarski1.5081111113WOct 7 · 10:50M. Miastowski3.7511811892J. Folwarski1.25611411113WOct 7 · 09:20P. Chodorski3.75111138102J. Folwarski1.25451111123WSep 26 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4451111113M. Jadczyk2.63112991LSep 26 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.30742T. Spanik3.401143WSep 26 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.361111113K. Petas3.009650WSep 26 · 04:10G. Adamiak3.75710120J. Folwarski1.251112143WSep 26 · 03:25J. Folwarski1.28111210113M. Miastowski3.509101271
Upcoming Matches
P. David
Oct 8 · 05:15P. David1.50D. Wederlich2.50—Oct 8 · 06:30P. David1.50J. Zandecki2.50—Oct 8 · 07:45P. David1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Oct 8 · 09:20P. David1.61A. Grela2.20—Oct 8 · 10:50P. David1.61D. Michna2.20—Oct 8 · 12:05P. David2.38J. Folwarski1.53—Oct 8 · 13:20P. David1.50D. Wederlich2.50—Oct 8 · 14:35P. David1.50J. Zandecki2.50—
J. Folwarski
Oct 8 · 04:55J. Folwarski1.25J. Zandecki3.75—Oct 8 · 06:05J. Folwarski1.50M. Jadczyk2.50—Oct 8 · 07:20J. Folwarski1.36D. Wederlich3.00—Oct 8 · 08:30J. Folwarski1.36A. Grela3.00—Oct 8 · 09:40J. Folwarski1.30D. Michna3.40—Oct 8 · 10:25J. Folwarski1.36D. Wederlich3.00—Oct 8 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.53P. David2.38—Oct 8 · 12:55J. Folwarski1.25J. Zandecki3.75—Oct 8 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.36A. Grela3.00—
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