TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Petr David vs Jakub Kuzmicz 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161412116––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:11 and never touched: 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr David above · Jakub Kuzmicz below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 60 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Petr David at 65.3%
60 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 3–3 Jakub Kuzmicz Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1165.3%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.4pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
David
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1985 vs Kuzmicz 1782
David
Correct
both rated, 203 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 60% vs Kuzmicz 40%
David
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 80% vs Kuzmicz 40%
David
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
David +1 · Kuzmicz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% · Clear lean (leans David) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 1.50 / Kuzmicz 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (David)-1.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13243327
David1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 242 of 365
Up 2–0, closes it95% 123 of 129
Up 1–0, closes it81% 180 of 221
Kuzmicz2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 125 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back33% 41 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDavid3wins
AwayKuzmicz3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavid75%3 of 4
AwayKuzmiczn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David4Kuzmicz2n = 6David took 4 of 6
S2David1Kuzmicz5n = 6Kuzmicz took 5 of 6
S3David3Kuzmicz3n = 6split evenly
S4David1Kuzmicz3n = 4Kuzmicz took 3 of 4
S5David2Kuzmicz1n = 3David took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricDavidKuzmiczD − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match40.839.5+1.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidKuzmiczBasisWin rate · lifetime659 / 995 vs 738 / 128866.2%57.3%659 / 995 vs 738 / 1288Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DavidDavid 1.50/Kuzmicz 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 25 · 12:05P. David521111910113J. Kuzmicz4469111262
LSep 25 · 04:55P. David47111011962J. Kuzmicz46412811113
WSep 24 · 07:45P. David50119118113J. Kuzmicz4291171142
LSep 16 · 14:10P. David2610880J. Kuzmicz341211113
LSep 16 · 07:20P. David2612770J. Kuzmicz361411113
WApr 5 · 15:35P. David4411715113J. Kuzmicz358111331
P. David10
WOct 5 · 10:00G. Felkel2.20531191P. David1.6111119113LOct 5 · 09:20P. David1.8311101191J. Kosowski1.8313129113WOct 5 · 08:30P. David1.57111547113A. Wiecek2.25813111182LOct 5 · 06:55P. David2.0010690M. Jadczyk1.731211113WOct 5 · 05:40P. David1.611011116113G. Felkel2.2012651162WOct 5 · 04:10P. David1.6751111143J. Kosowski2.101166121WOct 5 · 03:00P. David1.25119611113K. Wloczko3.7591111852WOct 4 · 14:35P. David1.171111113K. Kapik4.507670WOct 4 · 12:55P. David1.731111113M. Jadczyk2.008260WOct 4 · 11:40P. David1.2011118133D. Kostal4.339111111
J. Kuzmicz10
LOct 5 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.67111110113J. Kuzmicz2.10951291WOct 5 · 09:00G. Felkel1.6189100J. Kuzmicz2.201111123LOct 2 · 15:00J. Kuzmicz2.003550M. Jadczyk1.731111113LOct 2 · 13:45J. Kuzmicz1.73811111162K. Kolodziej2.00111386113WOct 2 · 12:30J. Kuzmicz2.1011611113K. Wloczko1.67911871WOct 2 · 11:15D. Michna1.53115771J. Kuzmicz2.3851111113WOct 2 · 10:25J. Kuzmicz1.571111113J. Kwapis2.257590LOct 2 · 08:30J. Kuzmicz1.7311581192G. Poliniewicz2.00911113113LOct 2 · 06:55J. Kuzmicz1.839860M. Jadczyk1.831111113LOct 2 · 05:40J. Kuzmicz2.38111291072D. Michna1.537101112113
Upcoming Matches
P. David
J. Kuzmicz
Oct 5 · 13:20J. Kuzmicz3.25J. Kosowski1.33—Oct 5 · 14:10J. Kuzmicz1.73K. Kolodziej2.00—Oct 6 · 03:40J. Kuzmicz—P. Chodorski——Oct 6 · 04:50J. Kuzmicz—M. Malachowski——Oct 6 · 05:35J. Kuzmicz—M. Olbrycht——Oct 6 · 06:25J. Kuzmicz—K. Wloczko——Oct 6 · 08:05J. Kuzmicz—G. Poliniewicz——Oct 6 · 09:00J. Kuzmicz—K. Kapik——Oct 6 · 10:05J. Kuzmicz—M. Olbrycht——Oct 6 · 11:45J. Kuzmicz—M. Rutkowski——
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