TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Petr David vs Krzysztof Kapik 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116117––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:30 and never touched: 83.8% is still 83.8%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
83.8%
83.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr David above · Krzysztof Kapik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 53 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Petr David at 83.8%
53 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 15–0 Krzysztof Kapik Krzysztof Kapik has won 0 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:3083.8%Our read85.8%to break even at 1.166
short by 2.0pp85.8% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.166 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
David
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-0 in 15
David
Correct
gap of 15 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1969 vs Kapik 1675
David
Correct
both rated, 294 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 100% vs Kapik 60%
David
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 90% vs Kapik 60%
David
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
David +9 · Kapik -2
David
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% · Strong (leans David) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 1.166 / Kapik 4.50
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (David)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13238221
David1.17
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 9
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite65% won 231 of 354
Up 2–0, closes it95% 116 of 122
Up 1–0, closes it81% 171 of 212
Kapik4.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 168 of 385
Down 0–1, comes back22% 47 of 211
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDavid10wins
AwayKapik0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDavid leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavid100%9 of 9
AwayKapikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David9Kapik1n = 10David took 9 of 10
S2David8Kapik2n = 10David took 8 of 10
S3David7Kapik3n = 10David took 7 of 10
S4David5Kapik1n = 6David took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDavidKapikD − KBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.029.1+9.9per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidKapikBasisWin rate · lifetime659 / 994 vs 1108 / 208566.3%53.1%659 / 994 vs 1108 / 2085Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DavidDavid 1.17/Kapik 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.8%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WFeb 22 · 17:25P. David44111111113K. Kapik37971381
WJan 18 · 18:05P. David43101111113K. Kapik29124581
WDec 23 · 20:00P. David331111113K. Kapik186660
WOct 19 · 19:30P. David351111133K. Kapik2779110
WJul 23 · 18:15P. David49111179113K. Kapik4899111182
WJun 18 · 18:15P. David331111113K. Kapik195590
WApr 24 · 15:55P. David3711411113K. Kapik37911891
WApr 20 · 19:05P. David331111113K. Kapik175480
WMar 31 · 15:30P. David4011115133K. Kapik293411111
WMar 30 · 17:05P. David43111011113K. Kapik30712651
P. David10
WOct 4 · 12:55P. David1.731111113M. Jadczyk2.008260WOct 4 · 11:40P. David1.2011118133D. Kostal4.339111111WOct 4 · 10:00P. David1.331211119113K. Kolodziej3.2514791162WOct 4 · 09:00P. David1.201111113K. Wisniewski4.336470WOct 4 · 08:05P. David1.20111011113K. Wisniewski4.33412951WOct 4 · 06:30K. Szurlej6.00137100P. David1.111511123WOct 4 · 05:40K. Kolodziej3.40551121P. David1.3011118113WOct 4 · 04:55P. David1.201111113D. Kostal4.333770WOct 4 · 03:45P. David1.7311711113M. Jadczyk2.00811891LSep 30 · 14:10P. David1.6111412882M. Miastowski2.205111011113
K. Kapik10
WOct 4 · 15:25K. Kapik1.401113113S. Brud2.7571180WOct 4 · 13:20K. Kapik1.833K. Wisniewski1.831LOct 4 · 12:05M. Jadczyk1.251211113K. Kapik3.7510320LOct 4 · 10:50D. Kostal2.0071112113K. Kapik1.731171041WOct 4 · 09:20K. Kolodziej1.731012111162K. Kapik2.00121458113WOct 2 · 14:15K. Kapik2.00101111123K. Wisniewski1.701287101WOct 2 · 12:35P. Jendrzejewski1.9068100K. Kapik1.801111123LOct 2 · 11:45D. Kosmal2.001112113K. Kapik1.7071040WOct 2 · 10:55K. Kapik1.951112113M. Rutkowski1.7771010WOct 2 · 09:45K. Kapik1.881161111113G. Poliniewicz1.8381181392
Upcoming Matches
P. David
Oct 5 · 03:00P. David1.30K. Wloczko3.40—Oct 5 · 04:10P. David1.67J. Kosowski2.10—Oct 5 · 05:40P. David1.61G. Felkel2.20—Oct 5 · 06:55P. David2.00M. Jadczyk1.73—Oct 5 · 08:30P. David1.57A. Wiecek2.25—Oct 5 · 09:20P. David1.67J. Kosowski2.10—Oct 5 · 10:00P. David1.61G. Felkel2.20—Oct 5 · 11:15P. David1.50J. Kuzmicz2.50—Oct 5 · 12:30P. David1.40K. Kolodziej2.75—Oct 5 · 13:45P. David1.57A. Wiecek2.25—
K. Kapik
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