TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Jadczyk vs Damian Wederlich 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118115––––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:28 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Damian Wederlich below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 50 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 29–27 Damian Wederlich Damian Wederlich has won 27 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:2854.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
29-27 in 56
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1875 vs Wederlich 1935
Wederlich
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 20% vs Wederlich 100%
Wederlich
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 30% vs Wederlich 80%
Wederlich
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk -4 · Wederlich +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Jadczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wederlich form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.80 / Wederlich 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jadczyk)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13258746
Jadczyk1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 402 of 640
Up 2–0, closes it95% 202 of 212
Up 1–0, closes it81% 315 of 388
Wederlich1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 17 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back19% 4 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk3wins
AwayWederlich7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderWederlich leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk50%3 of 6
AwayWederlich100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk6Wederlich4n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S2Jadczyk6Wederlich4n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S3Jadczyk3Wederlich7n = 10Wederlich took 7 of 10
S4Jadczyk4Wederlich5n = 9Wederlich took 5 of 9
S5Jadczyk0Wederlich3n = 3Wederlich took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykWederlichJ − WBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.038.3+1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykWederlichBasisWin rate · lifetime987 / 1693 vs 83 / 14158.3%58.9%987 / 1693 vs 83 / 141Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJadczyk 1.80/Wederlich 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 09:40M. Jadczyk4012116113D. Wederlich351071171
LSep 19 · 06:55M. Jadczyk50119101192D. Wederlich43411125113
LJul 11 · 10:25M. Jadczyk50111181192D. Wederlich51139117113
LJul 11 · 04:30M. Jadczyk34911681D. Wederlich4211911113
LJul 10 · 11:40M. Jadczyk358101161D. Wederlich4011126113
WJul 2 · 12:05M. Jadczyk331111113D. Wederlich167360
LJul 2 · 07:45M. Jadczyk371110971D. Wederlich3951211113
LJun 28 · 06:55M. Jadczyk4251111962D. Wederlich46117611113
WJun 5 · 14:50M. Jadczyk44111111113D. Wederlich31391361
LJun 5 · 07:00M. Jadczyk351161081D. Wederlich4061112113
M. Jadczyk10
LOct 8 · 03:45J. Zandecki2.10118126113M. Jadczyk1.67811101152LOct 7 · 13:45P. Chodorski2.1011811113M. Jadczyk1.67611681LOct 7 · 12:55A. Grela1.6111411113M. Jadczyk2.20311891LOct 7 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.50116461J. Folwarski1.5081111113WOct 7 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.671111113D. Michna2.109570LOct 7 · 09:40M. Miastowski2.00871111113M. Jadczyk1.7311118662WOct 7 · 07:45A. Grela2.10118941M. Jadczyk1.6781111113LOct 7 · 06:55P. Chodorski2.0011116113M. Jadczyk1.73661141WOct 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.73911119113M. Miastowski2.0011651162LOct 7 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.671131151D. Michna2.1091113113
D. Wederlich10
WOct 8 · 03:00A. Grela2.20671191D. Wederlich1.6111115113WSep 19 · 14:10D. Wederlich1.9113116113J. Stecyszyn1.801181181WSep 19 · 12:30A. Daniel2.6371191132D. Wederlich1.44115113113WSep 19 · 11:40D. Kostal4.005570D. Wederlich1.221111113WSep 19 · 10:50D. Wederlich1.22115811113G. Poliniewicz4.0071111972LSep 19 · 09:40D. Wederlich1.911071171M. Jadczyk1.8012116113LSep 19 · 08:30D. Wederlich1.503760A. Daniel2.501111113WSep 19 · 06:55D. Wederlich1.91411125113M. Jadczyk1.80119101192WSep 19 · 05:40D. Wederlich1.2011711113D. Kostal4.33611791WSep 19 · 04:10D. Wederlich1.2551111113G. Poliniewicz3.75116571
Upcoming Matches
M. Jadczyk
D. Wederlich
Oct 8 · 05:15D. Wederlich2.50P. David1.50—Oct 8 · 07:20D. Wederlich3.00J. Folwarski1.36—Oct 8 · 08:05D. Wederlich2.00J. Zandecki1.73—Oct 8 · 09:00D. Wederlich2.00J. Zandecki1.73—Oct 8 · 10:25D. Wederlich3.00J. Folwarski1.36—Oct 8 · 11:15D. Wederlich1.61A. Grela2.20—Oct 8 · 13:20D. Wederlich2.50P. David1.50—Oct 8 · 14:10D. Wederlich1.67D. Michna2.10—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.