TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Jadczyk vs Dawid Michna 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115117––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:23 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Jadczyk to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 · our read held Marcin Jadczyk at 57.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 35–33 Dawid Michna Dawid Michna has won 33 of their 68 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:2357.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jadczyk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
35-33 in 68
Jadczyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 68, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1901 vs Michna 1859
Jadczyk
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 40% vs Michna 60%
Michna
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 50% vs Michna 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk -1 · Michna -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Jadczyk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 1.666 / Michna 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Jadczyk)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13253379
Jadczyk1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 402 of 640
Up 2–0, closes it95% 202 of 212
Up 1–0, closes it81% 315 of 388
Michna2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 112 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back36% 38 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk3wins
AwayMichna7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk40%2 of 5
AwayMichna80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk5Michna5n = 10split evenly
S2Jadczyk4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3Jadczyk6Michna4n = 10Jadczyk took 6 of 10
S4Jadczyk3Michna5n = 8Michna took 5 of 8
S5Jadczyk0Michna3n = 3Michna took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykMichnaJ − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.040.5−2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime988 / 1693 vs 501 / 92358.4%54.3%988 / 1693 vs 501 / 923Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
JadczykJadczyk 1.67/Michna 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Jadczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jadczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 04:30M. Jadczyk301131151D. Michna4491113113
LOct 2 · 14:10M. Jadczyk34911951D. Michna4111811113
WOct 2 · 03:45M. Jadczyk44111111113D. Michna37137981
LOct 1 · 03:45M. Jadczyk51111381182D. Michna51915115113
WSep 21 · 12:05M. Jadczyk4612914113D. Michna4010111271
LSep 21 · 07:45M. Jadczyk3911811452D. Michna49711911113
LSep 10 · 09:40M. Jadczyk2911990D. Michna351311113
LSep 10 · 06:15M. Jadczyk4171111842D. Michna46117611113
LSep 9 · 12:55M. Jadczyk33871171D. Michna4011117113
WSep 4 · 10:50M. Jadczyk331111113D. Michna226880
M. Jadczyk10
LOct 7 · 09:40M. Miastowski2.00871111113M. Jadczyk1.7311118662WOct 7 · 07:45A. Grela2.10118941M. Jadczyk1.6781111113LOct 7 · 06:55P. Chodorski2.0011116113M. Jadczyk1.73661141WOct 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.73911119113M. Miastowski2.0011651162LOct 7 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.671131151D. Michna2.1091113113LOct 7 · 03:45J. Stecyszyn2.3831111113M. Jadczyk1.53119381WOct 6 · 07:45A. Wiecek1.9191060M. Jadczyk1.801112113WOct 6 · 06:55J. Kosowski1.75571381M. Jadczyk1.90111111113LOct 6 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.912870G. Felkel1.801111113WOct 6 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.7341111123M. Miastowski2.001155101
D. Michna10
LOct 7 · 09:00A. Grela1.9110111111113D. Michna1.8012913932WOct 7 · 08:05J. Stecyszyn2.3812128652D. Michna1.5310101111113WOct 7 · 07:20M. Miastowski1.738990D. Michna2.001111113LOct 7 · 05:15A. Grela1.8317811113D. Michna1.831511791WOct 7 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.671131151D. Michna2.1091113113WOct 7 · 03:00P. Chodorski1.67411681D. Michna2.1011811113LOct 2 · 15:45D. Michna1.337520J. Kwapis3.251111113WOct 2 · 14:10D. Michna1.8011811113M. Jadczyk1.91911951WOct 2 · 12:55D. Michna1.6711168123K. Kolodziej2.1091411101LOct 2 · 11:15D. Michna1.53115771J. Kuzmicz2.3851111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Jadczyk
D. Michna
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.