TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Damian Wederlich vs Dawid Michna 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611511911––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:12 and never touched: 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeDamian Wederlich to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDamian Wederlich above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 72 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Damian Wederlich at 55.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Damian Wederlich 11–11 Dawid Michna Dead even across their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 15h before this match
Wederlich beat Michna 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:1255.3%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 2.6pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Wederlich
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-11 in 22
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wederlich 1961 vs Michna 1872
Wederlich
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wederlich 80% vs Michna 40%
Wederlich
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wederlich 60% vs Michna 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wederlich +3 · Michna -1
Wederlich
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Wederlich) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wederlich form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWederlich 1.727 / Michna 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Wederlich)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13264265
Wederlich1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 61 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it79% 45 of 57
Michna2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog54% won 120 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back36% 41 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWederlich5wins
AwayMichna5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWederlich62.5%5 of 8
AwayMichnan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wederlich8Michna2n = 10Wederlich took 8 of 10
S2Wederlich6Michna4n = 10Wederlich took 6 of 10
S3Wederlich4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S4Wederlich3Michna4n = 7Michna took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWederlichMichnaW − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.935.8+1.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWederlichMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 152 vs 497 / 92158.6%54%89 / 152 vs 497 / 921Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WederlichWederlich 1.73/Michna 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Wederlich · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 14:10D. Wederlich341211113D. Michna2210660
LMay 23 · 12:25D. Wederlich3811115111D. Michna4613911133
WMay 23 · 06:40D. Wederlich4111811113D. Michna31611861
LMay 22 · 15:35D. Wederlich34166391D. Michna47141111113
LMay 22 · 03:40D. Wederlich471151011102D. Michna50811127123
WAug 1 · 12:50D. Wederlich331111113D. Michna269890
LAug 1 · 07:15D. Wederlich351011951D. Michna4212811113
LJul 9 · 15:10D. Wederlich36118891D. Michna3961111113
WMay 16 · 12:25D. Wederlich3811115113D. Michna36881191
WMay 16 · 05:05D. Wederlich331111113D. Michna199460
D. Wederlich10
WOct 9 · 06:30D. Wederlich2.00118511113A. Witkowski1.7331111952WOct 9 · 04:10P. David1.61101111792D. Wederlich2.20129511113WOct 9 · 03:25D. Wederlich2.10111310113J. Zandecki1.678111261WOct 8 · 14:10D. Michna2.1010660D. Wederlich1.671211113LOct 8 · 13:20P. David1.611113113D. Wederlich2.2081190WOct 8 · 11:15A. Grela2.00119651D. Wederlich1.7371111113LOct 8 · 10:25J. Folwarski1.3681112113D. Wederlich3.001181081LOct 8 · 09:00J. Zandecki1.67111188133D. Wederlich2.10781111112WOct 8 · 08:05J. Zandecki1.735860D. Wederlich2.001111113WOct 8 · 07:20J. Folwarski1.3661311852D. Wederlich3.001111511113
D. Michna10
LOct 9 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.911110811113D. Michna1.8061211852WOct 9 · 03:00P. David1.50123991D. Michna2.50101111113LOct 8 · 14:10D. Michna2.1010660D. Wederlich1.671211113LOct 8 · 12:30A. Grela1.83111211113D. Michna1.83914981WOct 8 · 11:40J. Zandecki1.8071191172D. Michna1.91118115113WOct 8 · 10:50D. Michna2.20131112113P. David1.611571051LOct 8 · 09:40D. Michna3.4081181182J. Folwarski1.30114118113WOct 8 · 08:30D. Michna2.021110911113G. Poliniewicz1.7181211922WOct 8 · 06:50D. Michna1.4211138113P. Jendrzejewski2.555111151WOct 8 · 05:35D. Michna1.52711411113J. Mitas2.3011511472
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