TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Jan Zandecki vs Dawid Michna 2-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711118911115711
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:36 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeJan Zandecki to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Jan Zandecki @ 1.80 · Lost
How it is goingJan Zandecki above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Jan Zandecki at 54.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jan Zandecki 20–24 Dawid Michna Jan Zandecki has won 20 of their 44 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:3654.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zandecki
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-24 in 44
Michna
Correct
gap of 4 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zandecki 2000 vs Michna 1874
Zandecki
Wrong
both rated, 127 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zandecki 60% vs Michna 80%
Michna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zandecki 70% vs Michna 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zandecki +2 · Michna +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Zandecki) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZandecki 1.80 / Michna 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zandecki)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13258928
Zandecki1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 115 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it96% 47 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it77% 82 of 107
Michna1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 116 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back36% 39 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZandecki4wins
AwayMichna6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZandecki60%3 of 5
AwayMichna80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zandecki5Michna5n = 10split evenly
S2Zandecki6Michna4n = 10Zandecki took 6 of 10
S3Zandecki4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S4Zandecki6Michna1n = 7Zandecki took 6 of 7
S5Zandecki1Michna5n = 6Michna took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZandeckiMichnaZ − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.938.2+2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZandeckiMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime469 / 828 vs 500 / 92556.6%54.1%469 / 828 vs 500 / 925Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZandeckiZandecki 1.80/Michna 1.91
Miss
What we said
54.3%
Zandecki · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jan Zandecki @ 1.80 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 04:10J. Zandecki50911811113D. Michna3711211672
LAug 14 · 12:55J. Zandecki4496111172D. Michna42111136113
WAug 14 · 05:40J. Zandecki371311133D. Michna30118110
LJul 14 · 09:20J. Zandecki4241181182D. Michna49119117113
WJul 14 · 06:55J. Zandecki4111127113D. Michna347101161
LJun 18 · 13:45J. Zandecki258890D. Michna331111113
LJun 18 · 03:00J. Zandecki46911124102D. Michna531191011123
LJun 17 · 14:35J. Zandecki4811991182D. Michna41211116113
LJun 17 · 03:45J. Zandecki4311591172D. Michna44711114113
WMay 31 · 14:30J. Zandecki331111113D. Michna198650
J. Zandecki10
WOct 8 · 10:00J. Zandecki2.00111155113A. Grela1.7364111152WOct 8 · 09:00J. Zandecki1.67111188133D. Wederlich2.10781111112LOct 8 · 08:05J. Zandecki1.735860D. Wederlich2.001111113LOct 8 · 06:30P. David1.571111710113J. Zandecki2.2579111272WOct 8 · 05:40A. Grela1.839101261J. Zandecki1.83111210113LOct 8 · 04:55J. Zandecki3.751181051J. Folwarski1.2571112113WOct 8 · 03:45J. Zandecki2.10118126113M. Jadczyk1.67811101152WSep 29 · 14:10P. Chodorski1.9110850J. Zandecki1.801211113WSep 29 · 13:20P. David1.6710990J. Zandecki2.101211113WSep 29 · 11:15G. Felkel1.5381141182J. Zandecki2.38119115113
D. Michna10
WOct 8 · 10:50D. Michna2.20131112113P. David1.611571051LOct 8 · 09:40D. Michna3.4081181182J. Folwarski1.30114118113WOct 8 · 08:30D. Michna2.021110911113G. Poliniewicz1.7181211922WOct 8 · 06:50D. Michna1.4211138113P. Jendrzejewski2.555111151WOct 8 · 05:35D. Michna1.52711411113J. Mitas2.3011511472LOct 8 · 04:00D. Michna1.521011100K. Wloczko2.301213123LOct 8 · 03:00D. Michna2.008780J. Stecyszyn1.701111113LOct 7 · 14:10M. Miastowski1.61711119113D. Michna2.2011821172WOct 7 · 13:20J. Folwarski1.3311890D. Michna3.251311113WOct 7 · 11:15P. Chodorski1.67513812102D. Michna2.1011111110123
Upcoming Matches
J. Zandecki
Oct 8 · 12:55J. Zandecki3.75J. Folwarski1.25—Oct 8 · 14:35J. Zandecki2.10P. David1.67—Oct 9 · 03:25J. Zandecki1.80D. Wederlich1.91—Oct 9 · 04:55J. Zandecki2.25A. Witkowski1.57—Oct 9 · 06:05J. Zandecki1.91M. Jadczyk1.80—Oct 9 · 07:20J. Zandecki1.80D. Michna1.91—Oct 9 · 08:30J. Zandecki2.10P. David1.67—Oct 9 · 10:50J. Zandecki1.91M. Jadczyk1.80—Oct 9 · 12:05J. Zandecki1.80D. Wederlich1.91—Oct 9 · 12:55J. Zandecki2.25A. Witkowski1.57—
D. Michna
Oct 8 · 14:10D. Michna2.10D. Wederlich1.67—Oct 9 · 03:00D. Michna—P. David——Oct 9 · 04:30D. Michna1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Oct 9 · 05:15D. Michna2.10D. Wederlich1.67—Oct 9 · 07:20D. Michna1.91J. Zandecki1.80—Oct 9 · 10:00D. Michna2.50A. Witkowski1.50—Oct 9 · 11:40D. Michna1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Oct 9 · 12:30D. Michna2.50P. David1.50—Oct 9 · 14:35D. Michna2.10D. Wederlich1.67—
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