TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dawid Michna vs Petr David 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13151171210115––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:44 and never touched: 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDawid Michna above · Petr David below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 84 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Petr David at 60.9%
84 points played in total.
H2H Dawid Michna 14–15 Petr David Dawid Michna has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4460.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
David
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-15 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michna 1858 vs David 1973
David
Wrong
both rated, 116 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michna 60% vs David 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michna 50% vs David 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Michna -1 · David -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans David) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michna form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichna 2.20 / David 1.615
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (David)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13258874
Michna2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 116 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back36% 39 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
David1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 233 of 351
Up 2–0, closes it95% 118 of 124
Up 1–0, closes it82% 172 of 211
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMichna5wins
AwayDavid5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichna75%3 of 4
AwayDavid66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michna4David6n = 10David took 6 of 10
S2Michna5David5n = 10split evenly
S3Michna3David7n = 10David took 7 of 10
S4Michna7David3n = 10Michna took 7 of 10
S5Michna4David3n = 7Michna took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMichnaDavidM − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.745.2−0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichnaDavidBasisWin rate · lifetime500 / 925 vs 658 / 99354.1%66.3%500 / 925 vs 658 / 993Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DavidMichna 2.20/David 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 13:45D. Michna3711113121P. David4513711143
WSep 3 · 08:30D. Michna4112711113P. David351011861
WAug 27 · 11:40D. Michna511410511113P. David48121211762
WAug 27 · 06:30D. Michna505131011113P. David46111112482
WJun 12 · 11:10D. Michna521110119113P. David4361281162
LJun 12 · 05:40D. Michna42111121172P. David48813115113
WFeb 3 · 08:40D. Michna45511711113P. David4611811972
LJan 4 · 15:05D. Michna4691181172P. David46115118113
LJan 4 · 06:50D. Michna51911111192P. David53119139113
LJan 3 · 12:10D. Michna32661191P. David4211119113
D. Michna10
WOct 8 · 11:40J. Zandecki1.8071191172D. Michna1.91118115113LOct 8 · 09:40D. Michna3.4081181182J. Folwarski1.30114118113WOct 8 · 08:30D. Michna2.021110911113G. Poliniewicz1.7181211922WOct 8 · 06:50D. Michna1.4211138113P. Jendrzejewski2.555111151WOct 8 · 05:35D. Michna1.52711411113J. Mitas2.3011511472LOct 8 · 04:00D. Michna1.521011100K. Wloczko2.301213123LOct 8 · 03:00D. Michna2.008780J. Stecyszyn1.701111113LOct 7 · 14:10M. Miastowski1.61711119113D. Michna2.2011821172WOct 7 · 13:20J. Folwarski1.3311890D. Michna3.251311113WOct 7 · 11:15P. Chodorski1.67513812102D. Michna2.1011111110123
P. David10
WOct 8 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.44111031192P. David2.63712114113LOct 8 · 09:20A. Grela2.50131252P. David1.50111071LOct 8 · 07:45P. David1.7371111752M. Jadczyk2.00117911113WOct 8 · 06:30P. David1.571111710113J. Zandecki2.2579111272WOct 8 · 05:15P. David1.50151111113D. Wederlich2.501313861LOct 8 · 04:10A. Grela2.2011811113P. David1.61711741WOct 8 · 03:25P. David2.38111011123J. Folwarski1.535128101LOct 5 · 13:45P. David1.6111611892A. Wiecek2.20611811113LOct 5 · 12:30P. David1.40117111172K. Kolodziej2.75131138113WOct 5 · 11:15P. David1.501114113J. Kuzmicz2.5061260
Upcoming Matches
D. Michna
Oct 8 · 14:10D. Michna2.10D. Wederlich1.67—Oct 9 · 04:30D. Michna1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Oct 9 · 05:15D. Michna2.10D. Wederlich1.67—Oct 9 · 07:20D. Michna1.91J. Zandecki1.80—Oct 9 · 10:00D. Michna2.50A. Witkowski1.50—Oct 9 · 11:40D. Michna1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Oct 9 · 12:30D. Michna2.50P. David1.50—Oct 9 · 14:35D. Michna2.10D. Wederlich1.67—
P. David
Oct 8 · 13:20P. David1.61D. Wederlich2.20—Oct 8 · 14:35P. David1.67J. Zandecki2.10—Oct 9 · 04:10P. David1.61D. Wederlich2.20—Oct 9 · 05:40P. David1.57A. Witkowski2.25—Oct 9 · 06:55P. David1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Oct 9 · 08:30P. David1.67J. Zandecki2.10—Oct 9 · 10:25P. David1.61D. Wederlich2.20—Oct 9 · 11:15P. David1.57A. Witkowski2.25—Oct 9 · 12:30P. David1.50D. Michna2.50—Oct 9 · 13:45P. David1.67J. Zandecki2.10—
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