TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Grela vs Petr David 2-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 1
Set by set
1311121057––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:16 and never touched: 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Petr David below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-7
Point 58 set 3, 5-7 · our read held Petr David at 62.9%
58 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 37–68 Petr David Artur Grela has won 37 of their 105 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:1662.9%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 3.8pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
David
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
37-68 in 105
David
Wrong
gap of 31 in 105, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1951 vs David 1973
David
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 40% vs David 60%
David
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 50% vs David 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +1 · David -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans David) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 2.50 / David 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (David)-3.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13259044
Grela2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 98 of 218
Down 0–1, comes back32% 41 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
David1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 233 of 351
Up 2–0, closes it95% 118 of 124
Up 1–0, closes it82% 172 of 211
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela4wins
AwayDavid6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDavid leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela60%3 of 5
AwayDavid80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela5David5n = 10split evenly
S2Grela4David6n = 10David took 6 of 10
S3Grela6David4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S4Grela4David5n = 9David took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaDavidG − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.940.0−3.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaDavidBasisWin rate · lifetime643 / 1239 vs 658 / 99451.9%66.2%643 / 1239 vs 658 / 994Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DavidGrela 2.50/David 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–1
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 8 · 04:10A. Grela4111811113P. David29711741
LSep 30 · 11:40A. Grela33871171P. David4011117113
WSep 30 · 04:55A. Grela4412615113P. David4310111391
LSep 24 · 12:55A. Grela341239101P. David44101111123
LSep 24 · 06:05A. Grela4391111572P. David45115711113
LSep 17 · 13:45A. Grela4112137542P. David5410111111113
LSep 17 · 08:30A. Grela194780P. David331111113
LAug 27 · 10:00A. Grela31851171P. David4011117113
WAug 27 · 05:40A. Grela4313127113P. David4011101181
WAug 5 · 10:00A. Grela4071111113P. David32118671
A. Grela10
LOct 8 · 10:00J. Zandecki2.00111155113A. Grela1.7364111152WOct 8 · 08:30A. Grela3.001113113J. Folwarski1.3631190LOct 8 · 06:55A. Grela1.91101111462M. Jadczyk1.80128811113LOct 8 · 05:40A. Grela1.839101261J. Zandecki1.83111210113WOct 8 · 04:10A. Grela2.2011811113P. David1.61711741LOct 8 · 03:00A. Grela2.20671191D. Wederlich1.6111115113WOct 7 · 14:35A. Grela2.6321211113J. Folwarski1.441110741WOct 7 · 12:55A. Grela1.6111411113M. Jadczyk2.20311891LOct 7 · 11:40A. Grela1.61119571M. Miastowski2.2061111113LOct 7 · 10:00A. Grela1.801191141P. Chodorski1.9151113113
P. David10
LOct 8 · 07:45P. David1.7371111752M. Jadczyk2.00117911113WOct 8 · 06:30P. David1.571111710113J. Zandecki2.2579111272WOct 8 · 05:15P. David1.50151111113D. Wederlich2.501313861LOct 8 · 04:10A. Grela2.2011811113P. David1.61711741WOct 8 · 03:25P. David2.38111011123J. Folwarski1.535128101LOct 5 · 13:45P. David1.6111611892A. Wiecek2.20611811113LOct 5 · 12:30P. David1.40117111172K. Kolodziej2.75131138113WOct 5 · 11:15P. David1.501114113J. Kuzmicz2.5061260WOct 5 · 10:00G. Felkel2.20531191P. David1.6111119113LOct 5 · 09:20P. David1.8311101191J. Kosowski1.8313129113
Upcoming Matches
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