TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Grela vs Jakub Folwarski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1131311119––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:29 and never touched: 69.2% is still 69.2%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
69.2%
69.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Jakub Folwarski below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 58 set 3, 11-9 · our read held Jakub Folwarski at 69.2%
58 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 12–21 Jakub Folwarski Artur Grela has won 12 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:2969.2%Our read73.4%to break even at 1.363
short by 4.2pp73.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.363 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Folwarski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-21 in 33
Folwarski
Wrong
gap of 9 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1931 vs Folwarski 2081
Folwarski
Wrong
both rated, 150 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 40% vs Folwarski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 40% vs Folwarski 60%
Folwarski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela -2 · Folwarski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Folwarski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Folwarski form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 3.00 / Folwarski 1.363
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Folwarski)-4.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13258986
Grela3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 98 of 218
Down 0–1, comes back32% 41 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Folwarski1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite77% won 166 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it89% 98 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela3wins
AwayFolwarski7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderFolwarski leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela25%1 of 4
AwayFolwarski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela4Folwarski6n = 10Folwarski took 6 of 10
S2Grela4Folwarski6n = 10Folwarski took 6 of 10
S3Grela6Folwarski4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S4Grela1Folwarski7n = 8Folwarski took 7 of 8
S5Grela2Folwarski3n = 5Folwarski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaFolwarskiG − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.641.0−2.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaFolwarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime642 / 1238 vs 275 / 36451.9%75.6%642 / 1238 vs 275 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.12.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiGrela 3.00/Folwarski 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.2%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 14:35A. Grela3621211113J. Folwarski321110741
LJul 15 · 09:20A. Grela4811811992J. Folwarski40511211113
LJul 11 · 10:00A. Grela237970J. Folwarski331111113
LJul 11 · 05:40A. Grela2151060J. Folwarski341112113
WJul 4 · 10:00A. Grela50511119143J. Folwarski45114711122
LJul 4 · 05:40A. Grela50117111562J. Folwarski53711717113
LJun 4 · 04:00A. Grela31118481J. Folwarski4071111113
LMay 30 · 13:40A. Grela4391111662J. Folwarski47119511113
WMay 30 · 04:00A. Grela50118117133J. Folwarski41411411112
LMay 29 · 15:35A. Grela341311371J. Folwarski4515811113
A. Grela10
LOct 8 · 06:55A. Grela1.91101111462M. Jadczyk1.80128811113LOct 8 · 05:40A. Grela1.839101261J. Zandecki1.83111210113WOct 8 · 04:10A. Grela2.2011811113P. David1.61711741LOct 8 · 03:00A. Grela2.20671191D. Wederlich1.6111115113WOct 7 · 14:35A. Grela2.6321211113J. Folwarski1.441110741WOct 7 · 12:55A. Grela1.6111411113M. Jadczyk2.20311891LOct 7 · 11:40A. Grela1.61119571M. Miastowski2.2061111113LOct 7 · 10:00A. Grela1.801191141P. Chodorski1.9151113113WOct 7 · 09:00A. Grela1.9110111111113D. Michna1.8012913932LOct 7 · 07:45A. Grela2.10118941M. Jadczyk1.6781111113
J. Folwarski10
LOct 8 · 07:20J. Folwarski1.3661311852D. Wederlich3.001111511113WOct 8 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.634930J. Folwarski1.441111113WOct 8 · 04:55J. Zandecki3.751181051J. Folwarski1.2571112113LOct 8 · 03:25P. David2.38111011123J. Folwarski1.535128101LOct 7 · 14:35A. Grela2.6321211113J. Folwarski1.441110741LOct 7 · 13:20J. Folwarski1.3311890D. Michna3.251311113WOct 7 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.50116461J. Folwarski1.5081111113WOct 7 · 10:50M. Miastowski3.7511811892J. Folwarski1.25611411113WOct 7 · 09:20P. Chodorski3.75111138102J. Folwarski1.25451111123WSep 26 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4451111113M. Jadczyk2.63112991
Upcoming Matches
A. Grela
J. Folwarski
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.