TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Jadczyk vs Jakub Folwarski 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411911311––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:03 and never touched: 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Jakub Folwarski below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 49 set 3, 3-11 · our read held Jakub Folwarski at 66.1%
49 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 8–26 Jakub Folwarski Marcin Jadczyk has won 8 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:0366.1%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.2pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Folwarski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-26 in 34
Folwarski
Correct
gap of 18 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1885 vs Folwarski 2100
Folwarski
Correct
both rated, 215 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 20% vs Folwarski 40%
Folwarski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 40% vs Folwarski 60%
Folwarski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk +1 · Folwarski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Folwarski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Folwarski form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 2.625 / Folwarski 1.444
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Folwarski)-3.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13259050
Jadczyk2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 113 of 249
Down 0–1, comes back27% 29 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
Folwarski1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite77% won 166 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it97% 67 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it89% 98 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadczyk2wins
AwayFolwarski8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFolwarski leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadczyk25%2 of 8
AwayFolwarskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadczyk8Folwarski2n = 10Jadczyk took 8 of 10
S2Jadczyk3Folwarski7n = 10Folwarski took 7 of 10
S3Jadczyk1Folwarski9n = 10Folwarski took 9 of 10
S4Jadczyk1Folwarski8n = 9Folwarski took 8 of 9
S5Jadczyk2Folwarski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadczykFolwarskiJ − FBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.244.5−7.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykFolwarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime988 / 1695 vs 276 / 36458.3%75.8%988 / 1695 vs 276 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.22.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiJadczyk 2.63/Folwarski 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Folwarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 06:05M. Jadczyk164930J. Folwarski331111113
LOct 7 · 12:05M. Jadczyk27116461J. Folwarski4181111113
LSep 26 · 07:45M. Jadczyk31112991J. Folwarski3851111113
LAug 13 · 07:15M. Jadczyk521212711102J. Folwarski561014119123
LAug 7 · 10:50M. Jadczyk44131164102J. Folwarski531181111123
WJul 15 · 12:05M. Jadczyk50116138123J. Folwarski507111111102
LJul 11 · 13:45M. Jadczyk35119871J. Folwarski4181111113
LJul 11 · 06:55M. Jadczyk321111911J. Folwarski4213711113
LJul 10 · 13:20M. Jadczyk32136761J. Folwarski44111111113
WJul 4 · 06:55M. Jadczyk531311117113J. Folwarski47116131162
M. Jadczyk10
WOct 8 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.801111113D. Wederlich1.914850LOct 8 · 03:45J. Zandecki2.10118126113M. Jadczyk1.67811101152LOct 7 · 13:45P. Chodorski2.1011811113M. Jadczyk1.67611681LOct 7 · 12:55A. Grela1.6111411113M. Jadczyk2.20311891LOct 7 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.50116461J. Folwarski1.5081111113WOct 7 · 10:25M. Jadczyk1.671111113D. Michna2.109570LOct 7 · 09:40M. Miastowski2.00871111113M. Jadczyk1.7311118662WOct 7 · 07:45A. Grela2.10118941M. Jadczyk1.6781111113LOct 7 · 06:55P. Chodorski2.0011116113M. Jadczyk1.73661141WOct 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.73911119113M. Miastowski2.0011651162
J. Folwarski10
WOct 8 · 04:55J. Zandecki3.751181051J. Folwarski1.2571112113LOct 8 · 03:25P. David2.38111011123J. Folwarski1.535128101LOct 7 · 14:35A. Grela2.6321211113J. Folwarski1.441110741LOct 7 · 13:20J. Folwarski1.3311890D. Michna3.251311113WOct 7 · 12:05M. Jadczyk2.50116461J. Folwarski1.5081111113WOct 7 · 10:50M. Miastowski3.7511811892J. Folwarski1.25611411113WOct 7 · 09:20P. Chodorski3.75111138102J. Folwarski1.25451111123WSep 26 · 07:45J. Folwarski1.4451111113M. Jadczyk2.63112991LSep 26 · 06:30J. Folwarski1.30742T. Spanik3.401143WSep 26 · 05:15J. Folwarski1.361111113K. Petas3.009650
Upcoming Matches
M. Jadczyk
J. Folwarski
Oct 8 · 07:20J. Folwarski1.36D. Wederlich3.00—Oct 8 · 08:30J. Folwarski1.36A. Grela3.00—Oct 8 · 09:40J. Folwarski1.30D. Michna3.40—Oct 8 · 10:25J. Folwarski1.36D. Wederlich3.00—Oct 8 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.44P. David2.63—Oct 8 · 12:55J. Folwarski1.25J. Zandecki3.75—Oct 8 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.36A. Grela3.00—
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