TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Petr David vs Dawid Michna 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1210311911911––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:37 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Petr David @ 1.50 · Lost
How it is goingPetr David above · Dawid Michna below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 · our read held Petr David at 65.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 15–15 Dawid Michna Dead even across their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
Same-day rematch · 16h before this match
Michna beat David 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pick
Sealed 01:37Sent to Pro: Petr David @ 1.50 · Lost
65.7%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 1.0pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
David
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-15 in 30
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1997 vs Michna 1865
David
Wrong
both rated, 132 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 60% vs Michna 40%
David
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 60% vs Michna 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
David +3 · Michna -2
David
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans David) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 1.50 / Michna 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (David)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13264557
David1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 233 of 351
Up 2–0, closes it95% 118 of 124
Up 1–0, closes it82% 172 of 211
Michna2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog54% won 116 of 217
Down 0–1, comes back36% 39 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDavid4wins
AwayMichna6wins
7 of 10 to a deciderMichna leads 6–4, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavid50%3 of 6
AwayMichna75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David6Michna4n = 10David took 6 of 10
S2David4Michna6n = 10Michna took 6 of 10
S3David7Michna3n = 10David took 7 of 10
S4David2Michna8n = 10Michna took 8 of 10
S5David3Michna4n = 7Michna took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDavidMichnaD − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.746.2−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidMichnaBasisWin rate · lifetime659 / 993 vs 498 / 92166.4%54.1%659 / 993 vs 498 / 921Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DavidDavid 1.50/Michna 2.50
Miss
What we said
65.7%
David · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Petr David @ 1.50 · Lost
What happened
1–3
Michna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 10:50P. David371571051D. Michna47131112113
WSep 3 · 13:45P. David4513711143D. Michna3711113121
LSep 3 · 08:30P. David351011861D. Michna4112711113
LAug 27 · 11:40P. David48121211762D. Michna511410511113
LAug 27 · 06:30P. David46111112482D. Michna505131011113
LJun 12 · 11:10P. David4361281162D. Michna521110119113
WJun 12 · 05:40P. David48813115113D. Michna42111121172
LFeb 3 · 08:40P. David4611811972D. Michna45511711113
WJan 4 · 15:05P. David46115118113D. Michna4691181172
WJan 4 · 06:50P. David53119139113D. Michna51911111192
P. David10
LOct 9 · 04:10P. David1.61101111792D. Wederlich2.20129511113WOct 8 · 14:35J. Zandecki2.10116541P. David1.6771111113WOct 8 · 13:20P. David1.611113113D. Wederlich2.2081190WOct 8 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.44111031192P. David2.63712114113LOct 8 · 10:50D. Michna2.20131112113P. David1.611571051LOct 8 · 09:20A. Grela2.50131252P. David1.50111071LOct 8 · 07:45P. David1.7371111752M. Jadczyk2.00117911113WOct 8 · 06:30P. David1.571111710113J. Zandecki2.2579111272WOct 8 · 05:15P. David1.50151111113D. Wederlich2.501313861LOct 8 · 04:10A. Grela2.2011811113P. David1.61711741
D. Michna10
LOct 9 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.911110811113D. Michna1.8061211852LOct 8 · 14:10D. Michna2.1010660D. Wederlich1.671211113LOct 8 · 12:30A. Grela1.83111211113D. Michna1.83914981WOct 8 · 11:40J. Zandecki1.8071191172D. Michna1.91118115113WOct 8 · 10:50D. Michna2.20131112113P. David1.611571051LOct 8 · 09:40D. Michna3.4081181182J. Folwarski1.30114118113WOct 8 · 08:30D. Michna2.021110911113G. Poliniewicz1.7181211922WOct 8 · 06:50D. Michna1.4211138113P. Jendrzejewski2.555111151WOct 8 · 05:35D. Michna1.52711411113J. Mitas2.3011511472LOct 8 · 04:00D. Michna1.521011100K. Wloczko2.301213123
Upcoming Matches
P. David
Oct 9 · 05:40P. David1.53A. Witkowski2.38—Oct 9 · 06:55P. David1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—Oct 9 · 08:30P. David1.73J. Zandecki2.00—Oct 9 · 10:25P. David1.61D. Wederlich2.20—Oct 9 · 11:15P. David1.53A. Witkowski2.38—Oct 9 · 12:30P. David1.50D. Michna2.50—Oct 9 · 13:45P. David1.73J. Zandecki2.00—Oct 9 · 15:00P. David1.73M. Jadczyk2.00—
D. Michna
Oct 9 · 05:15D. Michna2.00D. Wederlich1.73—Oct 9 · 07:20D. Michna2.10J. Zandecki1.67—Oct 9 · 08:05D. Michna2.50A. Witkowski1.50—Oct 9 · 10:00D. Michna2.50A. Witkowski1.50—Oct 9 · 11:40D. Michna1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Oct 9 · 12:30D. Michna2.50P. David1.50—Oct 9 · 14:35D. Michna2.00D. Wederlich1.73—Oct 9 · 15:25D. Michna2.00J. Zandecki1.73—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.