TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Damian Wederlich vs Jan Zandecki 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11813111012116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:22 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJan Zandecki to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDamian Wederlich above · Jan Zandecki below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 82 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Jan Zandecki at 57.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Damian Wederlich 23–19 Jan Zandecki Jan Zandecki has won 19 of their 42 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 18h before this match
Zandecki beat Wederlich 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:2257.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zandecki
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
23-19 in 42
Wederlich
Correct
gap of 4 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wederlich 1936 vs Zandecki 1965
Zandecki
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wederlich 40% vs Zandecki 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wederlich 50% vs Zandecki 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wederlich +1 · Zandecki -3
Zandecki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Zandecki) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zandecki form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWederlich 2.10 / Zandecki 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Zandecki)-3.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13264270
Wederlich2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 17 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back19% 4 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Zandecki1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 115 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it96% 47 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it77% 82 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWederlich6wins
AwayZandecki4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWederlich leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWederlich100%3 of 3
AwayZandecki57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wederlich3Zandecki7n = 10Zandecki took 7 of 10
S2Wederlich4Zandecki6n = 10Zandecki took 6 of 10
S3Wederlich6Zandecki4n = 10Wederlich took 6 of 10
S4Wederlich5Zandecki1n = 6Wederlich took 5 of 6
S5Wederlich3Zandecki1n = 4Wederlich took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricWederlichZandeckiW − ZBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.437.5−1.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWederlichZandeckiBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 150 vs 469 / 83158%56.4%87 / 150 vs 469 / 831Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZandeckiWederlich 2.10/Zandecki 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Zandecki · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wederlich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 09:00D. Wederlich48781111112J. Zandecki51111188133
WOct 8 · 08:05D. Wederlich331111113J. Zandecki195860
WSep 18 · 15:25D. Wederlich48491311113J. Zandecki43111111552
WSep 18 · 05:15D. Wederlich4041411113J. Zandecki351112661
WMay 22 · 14:30D. Wederlich341111123J. Zandecki2147100
LMay 22 · 08:00D. Wederlich348112131J. Zandecki4511811153
WAug 17 · 10:25D. Wederlich461031111113J. Zandecki4612116892
LAug 17 · 06:40D. Wederlich188640J. Zandecki331111113
LAug 9 · 10:25D. Wederlich125610J. Zandecki331111113
WAug 9 · 05:05D. Wederlich51117811143J. Zandecki49811117122
D. Wederlich10
WOct 9 · 04:10P. David1.61101111792D. Wederlich2.20129511113WOct 8 · 14:10D. Michna2.1010660D. Wederlich1.671211113LOct 8 · 13:20P. David1.611113113D. Wederlich2.2081190WOct 8 · 11:15A. Grela2.00119651D. Wederlich1.7371111113LOct 8 · 10:25J. Folwarski1.3681112113D. Wederlich3.001181081LOct 8 · 09:00J. Zandecki1.67111188133D. Wederlich2.10781111112WOct 8 · 08:05J. Zandecki1.735860D. Wederlich2.001111113WOct 8 · 07:20J. Folwarski1.3661311852D. Wederlich3.001111511113LOct 8 · 05:15P. David1.50151111113D. Wederlich2.501313861LOct 8 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.801111113D. Wederlich1.914850
J. Zandecki10
LOct 8 · 14:35J. Zandecki2.10116541P. David1.6771111113LOct 8 · 12:55J. Zandecki3.75741131J. Folwarski1.2511116113LOct 8 · 11:40J. Zandecki1.8071191172D. Michna1.91118115113WOct 8 · 10:00J. Zandecki2.00111155113A. Grela1.7364111152WOct 8 · 09:00J. Zandecki1.67111188133D. Wederlich2.10781111112LOct 8 · 08:05J. Zandecki1.735860D. Wederlich2.001111113LOct 8 · 06:30P. David1.571111710113J. Zandecki2.2579111272WOct 8 · 05:40A. Grela1.839101261J. Zandecki1.83111210113LOct 8 · 04:55J. Zandecki3.751181051J. Folwarski1.2571112113WOct 8 · 03:45J. Zandecki2.10118126113M. Jadczyk1.67811101152
Upcoming Matches
D. Wederlich
Oct 9 · 05:15D. Wederlich1.73D. Michna2.00—Oct 9 · 06:30D. Wederlich2.00A. Witkowski1.73—Oct 9 · 07:45D. Wederlich1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Oct 9 · 10:25D. Wederlich2.20P. David1.61—Oct 9 · 12:05D. Wederlich2.10J. Zandecki1.67—Oct 9 · 13:20D. Wederlich1.75M. Jadczyk1.85—Oct 9 · 14:35D. Wederlich1.73D. Michna2.00—Oct 9 · 15:45D. Wederlich2.00A. Witkowski1.73—
J. Zandecki
Oct 9 · 06:05J. Zandecki1.91M. Jadczyk1.80—Oct 9 · 07:20J. Zandecki1.67D. Michna2.10—Oct 9 · 08:30J. Zandecki2.00P. David1.73—Oct 9 · 10:50J. Zandecki1.91M. Jadczyk1.80—Oct 9 · 12:05J. Zandecki1.67D. Wederlich2.10—Oct 9 · 12:55J. Zandecki2.25A. Witkowski1.57—Oct 9 · 13:45J. Zandecki2.00P. David1.73—Oct 9 · 15:25J. Zandecki1.73D. Michna2.00—
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