TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Artur Grela vs Damian Wederlich 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117911611511––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:12 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDamian Wederlich to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Damian Wederlich below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Damian Wederlich at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 14–26 Damian Wederlich Artur Grela has won 14 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:1254.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Wederlich
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
14-26 in 40
Wederlich
Correct
gap of 12 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1941 vs Wederlich 1923
Grela
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 40% vs Wederlich 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 40% vs Wederlich 60%
Wederlich
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela -1 · Wederlich -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Wederlich) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wederlich form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 2.00 / Wederlich 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wederlich)-3.9pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13258645
Grela2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 98 of 218
Down 0–1, comes back32% 41 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Wederlich1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 59 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela4wins
AwayWederlich6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderWederlich leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela80%4 of 5
AwayWederlich100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela5Wederlich5n = 10split evenly
S2Grela7Wederlich3n = 10Grela took 7 of 10
S3Grela6Wederlich4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S4Grela1Wederlich5n = 6Wederlich took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaWederlichG − WBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.335.0+0.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaWederlichBasisWin rate · lifetime643 / 1240 vs 85 / 14751.9%57.8%643 / 1240 vs 85 / 147Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
WederlichGrela 2.00/Wederlich 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wederlich · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wederlich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 8 · 03:00A. Grela33671191D. Wederlich3811115113
WSep 18 · 13:45A. Grela351111133D. Wederlich2366110
LSep 18 · 03:00A. Grela1972100D. Wederlich341111123
WJul 11 · 09:00A. Grela4211911113D. Wederlich27411841
LJul 11 · 08:05A. Grela4081111101D. Wederlich4311713123
LJun 5 · 12:25A. Grela4013117182D. Wederlich521181111113
LJun 5 · 03:00A. Grela29711651D. Wederlich4011711113
WJun 4 · 10:25A. Grela331111113D. Wederlich186480
WJun 4 · 05:05A. Grela351311113D. Wederlich2411670
LMay 23 · 14:50A. Grela47711111172D. Wederlich51117913113
A. Grela10
LOct 8 · 10:00J. Zandecki2.00111155113A. Grela1.7364111152WOct 8 · 09:20A. Grela2.50131252P. David1.50111071WOct 8 · 08:30A. Grela3.001113113J. Folwarski1.3631190LOct 8 · 06:55A. Grela1.91101111462M. Jadczyk1.80128811113LOct 8 · 05:40A. Grela1.839101261J. Zandecki1.83111210113WOct 8 · 04:10A. Grela2.2011811113P. David1.61711741LOct 8 · 03:00A. Grela2.20671191D. Wederlich1.6111115113WOct 7 · 14:35A. Grela2.6321211113J. Folwarski1.441110741WOct 7 · 12:55A. Grela1.6111411113M. Jadczyk2.20311891LOct 7 · 11:40A. Grela1.61119571M. Miastowski2.2061111113
D. Wederlich10
LOct 8 · 10:25J. Folwarski1.3681112113D. Wederlich3.001181081LOct 8 · 09:00J. Zandecki1.67111188133D. Wederlich2.10781111112WOct 8 · 08:05J. Zandecki1.735860D. Wederlich2.001111113WOct 8 · 07:20J. Folwarski1.3661311852D. Wederlich3.001111511113LOct 8 · 05:15P. David1.50151111113D. Wederlich2.501313861LOct 8 · 04:30M. Jadczyk1.801111113D. Wederlich1.914850WOct 8 · 03:00A. Grela2.20671191D. Wederlich1.6111115113WSep 19 · 14:10D. Wederlich1.9113116113J. Stecyszyn1.801181181WSep 19 · 12:30A. Daniel2.6371191132D. Wederlich1.44115113113WSep 19 · 11:40D. Kostal4.005570D. Wederlich1.221111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Grela
D. Wederlich
Oct 8 · 13:20D. Wederlich2.20P. David1.61—Oct 8 · 14:10D. Wederlich1.67D. Michna2.10—Oct 9 · 03:25D. Wederlich1.91J. Zandecki1.80—Oct 9 · 04:10D. Wederlich2.20P. David1.61—Oct 9 · 05:15D. Wederlich1.67D. Michna2.10—Oct 9 · 06:30D. Wederlich2.00A. Witkowski1.73—Oct 9 · 07:45D. Wederlich1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—Oct 9 · 10:25D. Wederlich2.20P. David1.61—Oct 9 · 12:05D. Wederlich1.91J. Zandecki1.80—Oct 9 · 13:20D. Wederlich1.80M. Jadczyk1.91—
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