TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Petr David vs Antoni Witkowski 3-0 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118118118––––
Antoni Witkowski
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:36 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timePetr David to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr David above · Antoni Witkowski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 57 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Petr David at 62.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Petr David 13–10 Antoni Witkowski Antoni Witkowski has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3662.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
David
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-10 in 23
David
Correct
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
David 1968 vs Witkowski 1893
David
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
David 60% vs Witkowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
David 50% vs Witkowski 70%
Witkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
David -2 · Witkowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans David) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Witkowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDavid 1.533 / Witkowski 2.375
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (David)-3.2pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13264243
David1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 231 of 350
Up 2–0, closes it95% 115 of 121
Up 1–0, closes it81% 169 of 209
Witkowski2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 17 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back30% 6 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDavid6wins
AwayWitkowski4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDavid leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDavid66.7%4 of 6
AwayWitkowski50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1David6Witkowski4n = 10David took 6 of 10
S2David6Witkowski4n = 10David took 6 of 10
S3David8Witkowski2n = 10David took 8 of 10
S4David4Witkowski2n = 6David took 4 of 6
S5David0Witkowski3n = 3Witkowski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDavidWitkowskiD − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.633.2+4.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDavidWitkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime658 / 994 vs 226 / 38766.2%58.4%658 / 994 vs 226 / 387Avg sets wonper match2.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DavidDavid 1.53/Witkowski 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
David · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
David won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 12 · 12:25P. David177550A. Witkowski331111113
WJun 12 · 03:00P. David331111113A. Witkowski194780
WJun 11 · 10:00P. David341211113A. Witkowski2510780
WJun 11 · 09:10P. David4411711153A. Witkowski355116131
LJun 5 · 12:50P. David3811611642A. Witkowski45711511113
WJun 5 · 04:50P. David43101111113A. Witkowski25125621
LJun 4 · 14:05P. David46121181142A. Witkowski471013112113
WJun 4 · 05:50P. David4061111123A. Witkowski331184101
WMar 26 · 12:10P. David331111113A. Witkowski199550
LMar 26 · 07:40P. David4881111992A. Witkowski51119911113
P. David10
LOct 9 · 04:10P. David1.61101111792D. Wederlich2.20129511113LOct 9 · 03:00P. David1.50123991D. Michna2.50101111113WOct 8 · 14:35J. Zandecki2.10116541P. David1.6771111113WOct 8 · 13:20P. David1.611113113D. Wederlich2.2081190WOct 8 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.44111031192P. David2.63712114113LOct 8 · 10:50D. Michna2.20131112113P. David1.611571051LOct 8 · 09:20A. Grela2.50131252P. David1.50111071LOct 8 · 07:45P. David1.7371111752M. Jadczyk2.00117911113WOct 8 · 06:30P. David1.571111710113J. Zandecki2.2579111272WOct 8 · 05:15P. David1.50151111113D. Wederlich2.501313861
A. Witkowski10
LOct 9 · 06:30D. Wederlich2.00118511113A. Witkowski1.7331111952LOct 9 · 04:55A. Witkowski1.5784111182J. Zandecki2.25111198113LOct 9 · 03:45A. Witkowski2.108930M. Jadczyk1.671111113WSep 13 · 07:45A. Witkowski1.5711511113S. Dosz2.25911961WSep 13 · 06:30A. Witkowski1.9181111113A. Dosz1.80117391WSep 13 · 05:15A. Witkowski1.83111011113K. Petas1.83812781WSep 13 · 04:10G. Adamiak2.75115741A. Witkowski1.4071111113LSep 13 · 03:25A. Witkowski1.576121151J. Zandecki2.2511149113WSep 12 · 13:45S. Dosz2.251178111A. Witkowski1.5791111133WSep 12 · 12:55J. Braun2.2089111182A. Witkowski1.61111169113
Upcoming Matches
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