TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Cesta Havrda vs Pavel Potmesil 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11811761113151012
Pavel Potmesil
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeCesta Havrda to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingCesta Havrda above · Pavel Potmesil below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 104 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Cesta Havrda at 57.7%
104 points played in total.
H2H Cesta Havrda 0–1 Pavel Potmesil Cesta Havrda has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4757.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Havrda
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1030 vs Potmesil 1041
Potmesil
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 40% vs Potmesil 60%
Potmesil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 30% vs Potmesil 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda -1 · Potmesil +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Havrda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potmesil form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 1.615 / Potmesil 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Havrda)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13248523
Havrda1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 20 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it78% 14 of 18
Potmesil2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 9 of 23
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHavrda0wins
AwayPotmesil1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderPotmesil leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHavrdaPotmesilH − PBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match51.053.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaPotmesilBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 239 vs 29 / 6341.8%46%100 / 239 vs 29 / 63Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaHavrda 1.61/Potmesil 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Potmesil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 6 · 12:00C. Havrda511111613102P. Potmesil53871115123
C. Havrda10
LOct 6 · 11:30J. Strnad2.381111113C. Havrda1.535980WOct 6 · 10:00C. Havrda1.50111011123V. Kubat2.508123101LOct 1 · 13:00L. Novotny1.5811914113C. Havrda2.257111231LOct 1 · 12:30C. Havrda3.002690L. Madle1.361111113WOct 1 · 11:00C. Havrda2.7511811113L. Novotny1.40711841LOct 1 · 10:00J. Cernik1.361111123C. Havrda3.0078100WSep 16 · 13:12J. Strnad2.501111881C. Havrda1.5013611113LSep 16 · 12:00L. Novotny1.531211113C. Havrda2.3810450LSep 16 · 11:00J. Strnad2.38521111113C. Havrda1.5311114672LSep 16 · 10:30C. Havrda2.639840J. Cernik1.441111113
P. Potmesil10
WOct 6 · 11:00V. Kubat1.448990P. Potmesil2.631111113LOct 6 · 10:30P. Potmesil2.1021271262J. Strnad1.6711101110113LAug 22 · 09:30A. Tkachenko1.6011118113P. Potmesil2.20461151WAug 22 · 08:30P. Potmesil1.671111113J. Koch2.101690WAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972LAug 22 · 06:00A. Tkachenko1.831111113P. Potmesil1.834790LAug 10 · 08:58V. Kubat1.5011115113P. Potmesil2.50781181LAug 10 · 08:00J. Strnad2.0011911113P. Potmesil1.73611191LAug 10 · 07:00V. Kubat1.6711711113P. Potmesil2.10611741LAug 10 · 06:30P. Potmesil2.2058110A. Hejduk1.611111133
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